Empoli
vs
Vicenza Virtus
Garuda Lions Prediction: Empoli
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus
| Probability | Empoli | Draw | Vicenza Virtus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.1% | 25.9% | 25.0% |
| Market | 39.8% | 27.1% | 33.1% |
| Final | 42.1% | 26.8% | 31.0% |
| Edge | +9.3% | -1.2% | -8.1% |
Why Empoli
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 1.18.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Empoli below the model: +9.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.37, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus match preview
Empoli faces Vicenza Virtus in a Serie B clash on October 23, 2026. According to our model, Empoli has a 43% probability of winning, while Vicenza Virtus stands at 30%, with a 27% chance of a draw. The expected goals for Empoli are 1.72, compared to 1.12 for Vicenza Virtus. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, occurring with a 10% probability.
In terms of recent form, Empoli has recorded three losses, one win, and one loss in their last five matches, while Vicenza Virtus has two losses, two draws, and one win in the same timeframe. Our model indicates a 54% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance that both teams will score in this matchup. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Empoli and Vicenza Virtus expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.92
Empoli and Vicenza Virtus attack and defence ratings
Empoli
Vicenza Virtus
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Empoli | 42.1% | 2.37 | +9.3% | 2.37 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.2% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.9% | 1.97 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Empoli | 42.1% |
| Draw | 26.8% | |
| Vicenza Virtus | 31.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.2% |
| No | 41.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Empoli win | 27.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 50.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 1-0 | 8.3% |
Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus stats
Empoli and Vicenza Virtus recent form
| Empoli |
DLLLWL |
| Vicenza Virtus |
DLLDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Empoli and Vicenza Virtus season so far
Empoli record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vicenza Virtus record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.8%, draw 27.1%, away 33.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.37 | 3.42 | 2.81 |
| Marathonbet | 2.35 | 3.42 | 2.80 |
| Pinnacle | 2.31 | 3.50 | 3.01 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.25 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .