Arezzo
vs
Benevento
Garuda Lions Prediction: Benevento
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Benevento is the favourite, not a value bet.
Arezzo vs Benevento overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Arezzo vs Benevento
| Probability | Arezzo | Draw | Benevento |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.4% | 26.5% | 42.1% |
| Market | 32.1% | 29.2% | 38.8% |
| Final | 31.9% | 28.5% | 39.6% |
| Edge | -0.2% | -0.7% | +0.8% |
Why Benevento
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.47, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.2% per unit staked (our 39.6% × 2.47 − 1).
Arezzo vs Benevento match preview
Arezzo faces Benevento in an upcoming Serie B clash, with the model assigning probabilities of 27% for an Arezzo win, 26% for a draw, and 47% for a Benevento victory. The expected goals for Arezzo stand at 1.24, while Benevento is projected at 1.68. The most likely scoreline from the model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 9%.
In terms of recent form, Arezzo has recorded one win alongside two draws and two losses, while Benevento has secured three wins, two draws, and one loss in their last six matches. The model indicates a 56% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance that both teams will score in this encounter. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Arezzo and Benevento expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.97
Arezzo and Benevento attack and defence ratings
Arezzo
Benevento
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Arezzo vs Benevento markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Benevento | 39.6% | 2.52 | +0.8% | 2.47 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.0% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.5% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.9% | 1.73 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arezzo | 31.9% |
| Draw | 28.5% | |
| Benevento | 39.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.6% |
| No | 39.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Benevento win | 22.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 57.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.4% |
| 1-2 | 9.0% | |
| 2-1 | 7.7% |
Arezzo vs Benevento stats
Arezzo and Benevento recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Arezzo and Benevento season so far
Arezzo record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Benevento record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Arezzo vs Benevento head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Benevento | Arezzo | Serie C - Supercoppa Lega Finals | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Arezzo vs Benevento odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.1%, draw 29.2%, away 38.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.87 | 3.16 | 2.47 |
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 2.38 |
| BetVictor | 2.88 | 3.20 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 3.05 | 3.25 | 2.40 |
| Betfair | 2.88 | 3.30 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 3.05 | 3.25 | 2.42 |
| Marathonbet | 2.85 | 3.16 | 2.45 |
| Pinnacle | 3.05 | 3.19 | 2.45 |
| SBO | 2.82 | 3.01 | 2.15 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.00 | 2.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .