Palermo
vs
Carrarese
Garuda Lions Prediction: Palermo
2 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 0.78.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Palermo is the favourite, not a value bet.
Palermo vs Carrarese overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Palermo vs Carrarese
| Probability | Palermo | Draw | Carrarese |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66.2% | 21.6% | 12.2% |
| Market | 64.6% | 19.9% | 15.4% |
| Final | 65.0% | 20.4% | 14.6% |
| Edge | +0.4% | +0.4% | -0.8% |
Why Palermo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 0.78.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.5% per unit staked (our 65.0% × 1.50 − 1).
Palermo vs Carrarese match preview
Palermo enters the match against Carrarese with a strong recent form, having won five of their last six matches, while Carrarese has experienced a mixed run with two wins and four losses in their last six games. According to our model, Palermo has a 66% probability of winning, with an expected goals tally of 2.07 compared to Carrarese's 0.78. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 2-0 in favor of Palermo.
In terms of goal-scoring potential, there is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams have a 48% likelihood of scoring at least once. Historically, Palermo has dominated their recent encounters with Carrarese, winning both of their last two meetings. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Palermo and Carrarese expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.84
Palermo and Carrarese attack and defence ratings
Palermo
Carrarese
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Palermo vs Carrarese markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palermo | 65.0% | 1.54 | +0.4% | 1.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.7% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.4% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Palermo win | 42.4% | 2.36 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palermo | 65.0% |
| Draw | 20.4% | |
| Carrarese | 14.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.3% |
| No | 51.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 35.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Palermo win | 42.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.7% | |
| Loss | 33.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.4% |
| 1-0 | 11.1% | |
| 1-1 | 10.3% |
Palermo vs Carrarese stats
Palermo and Carrarese recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Palermo and Carrarese season so far
Palermo record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Carrarese record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Palermo vs Carrarese head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Carrarese | Palermo | Italy Serie B | 0-1 |
| 2025-11-29 | Palermo | Carrarese | Italy Serie B | 5-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Palermo vs Carrarese odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 64.3%, draw 20.1%, away 15.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.45 | 4.75 | 5.81 |
| Bet365 | 1.48 | 4.33 | 6.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.44 | 4.33 | 5.75 |
| Betano | 1.50 | 4.55 | 6.10 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 4.75 | 6.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.48 | 4.70 | 6.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.44 | 4.75 | 5.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.46 | 4.81 | 6.07 |
| SBO | 1.40 | 4.08 | 5.32 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.40 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .