Italy Serie B
·
·Matchday 7
Verona
vs
Catanzaro
Garuda Lions Prediction: Verona
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Verona
54%
Draw
24%
Catanzaro
22%
Chance Verona wins
54%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
95%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
60%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
10% of simulated outcomes
Verona vs Catanzaro overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Verona vs Catanzaro
| Probability | Verona | Draw | Catanzaro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.4% | 24.0% | 21.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 54.4% | 24.0% | 21.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Verona
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 1.17.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
83%
3+ goals
60%
No goals
5%
Verona and Catanzaro expected goals
Verona
1.94
Catanzaro
1.17
Total expected goals: 3.11
Verona and Catanzaro attack and defence ratings
Verona
Attack
1.12 +12%
Defence
1.02 +2%
Catanzaro
Attack
1.05 +5%
Defence
1.18 +18%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Before and after this match
Verona vs Catanzaro markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Verona | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.4% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.6% | 2.19 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Verona | 54.4% |
| Draw | 24.0% | |
| Catanzaro | 21.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.0% |
| No | 40.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Verona win | 32.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 45.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.4% |