Modena
vs
Verona
Garuda Lions Prediction: Modena
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Modena vs Verona overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Modena vs Verona
| Probability | Modena | Draw | Verona |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.8% | 27.7% | 27.5% |
| Market | 47.0% | 28.0% | 24.9% |
| Final | 46.5% | 28.0% | 25.6% |
| Edge | -2.2% | -0.3% | +2.6% |
Why Modena
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 1.16.
Best available price on the pick: 2.07, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Modena vs Verona match preview
Modena faces Verona in an upcoming Serie B match, with kickoff scheduled for October 11, 2026. The model assigns a 45% probability of a Modena victory, while both a draw and a Verona win are estimated at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Modena, with a 9% probability.
In terms of offensive output, Modena is expected to score 1.54 goals, compared to Verona's 1.16. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match stands at 51%, and both teams scoring is projected at 55%. Recent form shows Modena with a mixed record of W-D-L-W-W-L, while Verona has a slightly better recent performance of W-L-W-W-D-L. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Modena and Verona expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.70
Modena and Verona attack and defence ratings
Modena
Verona
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Modena vs Verona markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Modena | 46.5% | 2.15 | -2.2% | 2.07 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.1% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Modena | 46.5% |
| Draw | 28.0% | |
| Verona | 25.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.1% |
| No | 44.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Modena win | 23.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 55.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | |
| 1-0 | 9.2% |
Modena vs Verona stats
Modena vs Verona head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Modena vs Verona odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.0%, draw 28.0%, away 24.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.95 | 3.35 | 3.86 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 2.07 | 3.40 | 3.70 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.75 |
| Dafabet | 2.04 | 3.40 | 3.75 |
| Marathonbet | 1.93 | 3.35 | 3.86 |
| Pinnacle | 1.99 | 3.32 | 4.03 |
| SBO | 1.99 | 2.97 | 3.23 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.10 | 3.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .