Modena
vs
Empoli
2 – 1 Full time
| 20′ | Luca Magnino | ||
| 27′ | Gerard Yepes | ||
| 41′ | Steven ShpendiBogdan Popov | ||
| 47′ | Giacomo Olzer | ||
| 55′ | Giacomo OlzerAndrea Belotti | ||
| 61′ | Andrea Belotti | ||
| 65′ | Gastón BrugmanSimone Santoro | ||
| 66′ | Alessandro Bianco | ||
| 70′ | Giuseppe Ambrosino | ||
| 77′ | Edoardo BiondiniFilippo Di Stefano | ||
| 82′ | Cristian Cauz | ||
| 83′ | Paulo AzziFrancesco Folino | ||
| 83′ | Giuseppe AmbrosinoWisdom Acquah | ||
| 83′ | Giuseppe CasoStenio·Zanetti Toledo | ||
| 89′ | Gerard YepesLuca Belardinelli | ||
| 89′ | Luca MagninoLapo Deli |
Match stats
| 22 | Shots | 9 |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 60 | Possession % | 40 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 6 | Offsides | 0 |
| 3 | Saves | 6 |
| 464 | Accurate passes | 286 |
Modena vs Empoli overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Modena vs Empoli
| Probability | Modena | Draw | Empoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.3% | 30.0% | 21.7% |
| Market | 57.8% | 25.2% | 17.0% |
| Final | 55.4% | 26.4% | 18.2% |
| Edge | -9.5% | +4.8% | +4.7% |
Why Modena
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.39 vs 0.85.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Modena and Empoli expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.24
Modena and Empoli attack and defence ratings
Modena
Empoli
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Modena vs Empoli: result vs prediction
Modena 2 – 1 Empoli
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Modena vs Empoli markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Modena | 55.4% | 1.80 | -9.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.2% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.8% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.7% | 1.93 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Modena | 55.4% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Empoli | 18.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.2% |
| No | 55.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Modena win | 24.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.2% | |
| Loss | 51.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 1-0 | 13.5% | |
| 0-0 | 11.9% |
Modena vs Empoli stats
Modena vs Empoli head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Empoli | Modena | Italy Serie B | 0-0 |
| 2025-10-24 | Modena | Empoli | Italy Serie B | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Modena vs Empoli odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 57.8%, draw 25.2%, away 17.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.62 | 3.72 | 5.42 |
| Bet365 | 1.65 | 3.60 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.60 | 3.75 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.65 | 3.70 | 5.70 |
| Betfair | 1.60 | 3.75 | 5.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.60 | 3.72 | 5.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.64 | 3.86 | 6.00 |
| SBO | 1.60 | 3.60 | 4.84 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.60 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .