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Italy Serie B · Full time ·Matchday 2

Benevento vs Sudtirol

1 – 1 Full time

55′Silvio Merkaj
59′V. LopesR. Burnete
66′L. CherubiniD. Okereke
69′S. Merkaj
71′A. VasicS. Davi
74′P. BeruattoE. Pierozzi
74′A. PriscoA. Siatounis
79′Marco Tumminello
80′M. TumminelloG. Mignani
80′D. LamestaE. Schimmenti
86′F. RispoliF. Tait
86′S. MerkajA. Okoro
86′B. BjarkasonE. Schroot
90′F. Salvemini

Stadio Ciro Vigorito, BeneventoReferee: Mario Perri, Italy

Benevento 47%
Draw 29%
Sudtirol 25%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

24 Shots 9
5 Shots on target 2
51 Possession % 49
11 Corners 1
16 Fouls 12
2 Offsides 1
1 Saves 3
387 Accurate passes 400

Benevento vs Sudtirol overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Benevento vs Sudtirol

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBeneventoDrawSudtirol
Model53.7%24.0%22.2%
Market44.3%30.1%25.6%
Final46.6%28.6%24.8%
Edge+9.4%-6.1%-3.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Benevento

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.20.
  • The market prices Benevento below the model: +9.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Benevento ↓ / Sudtirol → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 11% 6% 2 8% 10% 6% 3 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 83%
3+ goals 60%
No goals 5%

Benevento and Sudtirol expected goals

Benevento 1.93
Sudtirol 1.20

Total expected goals: 3.13

Benevento and Sudtirol attack and defence ratings

Benevento

Attack 1.27 +27%
Defence 1.50 +50%

Sudtirol

Attack 0.74 -26%
Defence 1.03 +3%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Benevento vs Sudtirol: result vs prediction

Benevento 1 – 1 Sudtirol

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 2 fixtures

Italy Serie B

Before and after this match

Benevento vs Sudtirol markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Benevento 46.6% 2.14 +9.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 60.6% 1.65 — —
Both teams to score Yes 60.7% 1.65 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 75.2% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 46.6% 2.14 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Benevento46.6%
Draw28.6%
Sudtirol24.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560.6%
Under 2.539.4%
Both teams to scoreYes60.7%
No39.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)75.2%
12 (either side)71.4%
X2 (draw or away)53.4%
Handicap -1Benevento win31.6%
Push (exactly one goal)21.8%
Loss46.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.1%
2-19.8%
2-08.2%

Benevento vs Sudtirol stats

Benevento and Sudtirol recent form

newest first
Benevento LLW
Sudtirol WDDDDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 3 completed matches.

Benevento vs Sudtirol head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Benevento vs Sudtirol odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 44.3%, draw 30.1%, away 25.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.12 3.05 3.70
1xBet 2.11 3.12 3.66
Bet365 2.10 3.10 3.60
Betano 2.15 3.15 3.70
Dafabet 2.16 3.15 3.70
Marathonbet 2.09 3.12 3.65
Pinnacle 2.15 3.12 3.77
SBO 2.09 2.80 3.17
Unibet 2.12 3.10 3.65
William Hill 2.10 2.90 3.60

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.12 ▲ +0.03
X 3.11 ▼ -0.01
2 3.66 ▼ -0.04

7 snapshots recorded, from .