Italy Serie B
·
Full time
·Matchday 2
Padova
vs
Verona
1 – 1 Full time
Padova
57%
Draw
27%
Verona
17%
Padova vs Verona overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Padova vs Verona
| Probability | Padova | Draw | Verona |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.7% | 26.6% | 16.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 56.7% | 26.6% | 16.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Padova
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 0.81.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
90%
2+ goals
71%
3+ goals
44%
No goals
10%
Padova and Verona expected goals
Padova
1.65
Verona
0.81
Total expected goals: 2.45
Padova and Verona attack and defence ratings
Padova
Attack
0.85 -15%
Defence
0.91 -9%
Verona
Attack
0.82 -18%
Defence
1.32 +32%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Padova vs Verona: result vs prediction
Padova 1 – 1 Verona
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Padova vs Verona markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Padova | 56.7% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.2% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.7% | 2.29 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Padova | 56.7% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| Verona | 16.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.7% |
| No | 54.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Padova win | 31.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.8% | |
| Loss | 43.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.1% |
| 1-1 | 12.5% | |
| 2-0 | 11.8% |