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Italy Serie B · Full time ·Matchday 2

Arezzo vs Palermo

2 – 3 Full time

21′D. Johnsen
44′Gabriel Strefezza
55′F. Ranocchia
59′G. StrefezzaE. Gyasi
59′D. JohnsenD. Vavassori
60′P. Cianci
66′N. PierozziT. Cassandro
66′HernaniN. Estevez
69′Nahuel Estévez
71′A. ArenaE. Pattarello
74′C. Tavernelli
76′P. CianciS. M. Eklu
77′M. SalaA. Cerri
82′J. PohjanpaloA. Gabrielloni
85′Artur Ioniță
87′G. IaccarinoM. Viviani
87′C. TavernelliM. Varela Djamanca
90′T. Augello

Citta di Arezzo, ArezzoReferee: Livio Marinelli, Italy

Arezzo 32%
Draw 30%
Palermo 37%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

15 Shots 17
5 Shots on target 7
43 Possession % 57
9 Corners 4
13 Fouls 13
4 Offsides 2
3 Saves 3
277 Accurate passes 374

Arezzo vs Palermo overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Arezzo vs Palermo

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityArezzoDrawPalermo
Model40.8%32.1%27.0%
Market29.4%29.9%40.7%
Final32.2%30.4%37.3%
Edge+11.5%+2.2%-13.7%

Confidence: Low

Why Palermo

  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Arezzo ↓ / Palermo → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 13% 10% 1 13% 15% 2 9% 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 87%
2+ goals 64%
3+ goals 35%
No goals 13%

Arezzo and Palermo expected goals

Arezzo 1.19
Palermo 0.93

Total expected goals: 2.12

Arezzo and Palermo attack and defence ratings

Arezzo

Attack 1.02 +2%
Defence 0.83 -17%

Palermo

Attack 1.04 +4%
Defence 0.80 -20%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Arezzo vs Palermo: result vs prediction

Arezzo 2 – 3 Palermo

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 2 fixtures

Italy Serie B

Before and after this match

Arezzo vs Palermo markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Palermo 37.3% 2.68 -13.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 64.5% 1.55 — —
Both teams to score No 56.7% 1.76 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 69.6% 1.44 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 72.7% 1.37 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Arezzo32.2%
Draw30.4%
Palermo37.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.535.5%
Under 2.564.5%
Both teams to scoreYes43.3%
No56.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)62.7%
12 (either side)69.6%
X2 (draw or away)67.8%
Handicap -1Palermo win10.0%
Push (exactly one goal)17.2%
Loss72.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.6%
0-013.4%
1-013.1%

Arezzo vs Palermo stats

Arezzo and Palermo recent form

newest first
Arezzo WLW
Palermo WWWLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 3 completed matches.

Arezzo vs Palermo head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Arezzo vs Palermo odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 29.4%, draw 29.9%, away 40.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 3.15 3.15 2.28
1xBet 3.24 3.12 2.28
Bet365 3.10 3.10 2.25
Betano 2.95 3.20 2.50
Dafabet 3.20 3.20 2.36
Marathonbet 3.24 3.12 2.26
Pinnacle 3.40 3.12 2.30
SBO 2.99 2.90 2.12
Unibet 3.00 3.00 2.43
William Hill 3.20 2.90 2.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.17 ▼ -0.05
X 3.12 —
2 2.29 ▼ -0.01

7 snapshots recorded, from .