Italy Serie B
·
Full time
·Matchday 1
Avellino
vs
Arezzo
1 – 2 Full time
Avellino
39%
Draw
31%
Arezzo
30%
Avellino vs Arezzo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Avellino vs Arezzo
| Probability | Avellino | Draw | Arezzo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.2% | 33.5% | 37.3% |
| Market | 42.4% | 30.0% | 27.7% |
| Final | 39.1% | 30.9% | 30.1% |
| Edge | -13.2% | +3.5% | +9.6% |
Why Avellino
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
85%
2+ goals
60%
3+ goals
32%
No goals
15%
Avellino and Arezzo expected goals
Avellino
0.92
Arezzo
1.07
Total expected goals: 1.99
Avellino and Arezzo attack and defence ratings
Avellino
Attack
0.74 -26%
Defence
1.08 +8%
Arezzo
Attack
0.93 -7%
Defence
0.83 -17%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Avellino vs Arezzo: result vs prediction
Avellino 1 – 2 Arezzo
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Avellino vs Arezzo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Avellino | 39.1% | 2.56 | -13.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 67.9% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.9% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 70.9% | 1.41 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Avellino | 39.1% |
| Draw | 30.9% | |
| Arezzo | 30.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 67.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.9% |
| No | 59.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Avellino win | 10.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.4% | |
| Loss | 70.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 15.0% |
| 1-1 | 14.8% | |
| 0-1 | 13.3% |
Avellino vs Arezzo stats
Avellino vs Arezzo head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Avellino vs Arezzo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.3%, draw 29.9%, away 27.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| 1xBet | 2.20 | 3.10 | 3.44 |
| 888Sport | 2.20 | 3.00 | 3.30 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.13 | 3.25 |
| Betano | 2.32 | 3.15 | 3.35 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.25 | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| Marathonbet | 2.18 | 3.10 | 3.44 |
| Pinnacle | 2.26 | 3.09 | 3.65 |
| SBO | 2.21 | 2.98 | 3.10 |
| Superbet | 2.25 | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| Unibet | 2.25 | 3.05 | 3.35 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 2.90 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.21 ▼ -0.01
X
3.12 ▲ +0.03
2
3.38 ▲ +0.03
2 snapshots recorded, from .