Garuda Lions
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Italy Serie B · Full time ·Matchday 1

Empoli vs Cremonese

1 – 0 Full time

Carlo Castellani, EmpoliReferee: Paride Tremolada, Italy

Empoli 36%
Draw 30%
Cremonese 34%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

Empoli vs Cremonese overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Empoli vs Cremonese

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityEmpoliDrawCremonese
Model45.3%30.0%24.7%
Market32.5%30.5%37.0%
Final35.7%30.4%33.9%
Edge+12.8%-0.5%-12.3%

Confidence: Medium

Why Empoli

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 0.95.
  • The market prices Empoli below the model: +12.8 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Empoli ↓ / Cremonese → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 11% 8% 1 12% 14% 2 9% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 89%
2+ goals 69%
3+ goals 41%
No goals 11%

Empoli and Cremonese expected goals

Empoli 1.37
Cremonese 0.95

Total expected goals: 2.31

Empoli and Cremonese attack and defence ratings

Empoli

Attack 0.95 -5%
Defence 1.06 +6%

Cremonese

Attack 0.84 -16%
Defence 0.97 -3%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Empoli vs Cremonese: result vs prediction

Empoli 1 – 0 Cremonese

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 1 fixtures

Italy Serie B

Before and after this match

Empoli vs Cremonese markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Empoli 35.7% 2.80 +12.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 59.3% 1.69 — —
Both teams to score No 53.1% 1.88 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 69.6% 1.44 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 54.7% 1.83 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Empoli35.7%
Draw30.4%
Cremonese33.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.540.7%
Under 2.559.3%
Both teams to scoreYes46.9%
No53.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)66.1%
12 (either side)69.6%
X2 (draw or away)64.3%
Handicap -1Empoli win22.2%
Push (exactly one goal)23.1%
Loss54.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.1%
1-012.3%
0-011.2%

Empoli vs Cremonese stats

Empoli and Cremonese recent form

newest first
Empoli DDWLDL
Cremonese WLWWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Empoli vs Cremonese head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Empoli vs Cremonese odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 32.6%, draw 30.6%, away 36.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.65 3.15 2.65
1xBet 2.89 2.97 2.57
888Sport 2.70 2.90 2.60
Bet365 2.88 3.20 2.50
BetVictor 2.75 3.13 2.40
Betano 2.95 3.10 2.57
Betfair 2.90 3.00 2.50
Dafabet 2.95 3.15 2.55
Marathonbet 2.89 2.97 2.57
Pinnacle 2.99 3.03 2.68
SBO 2.77 3.04 2.38
Superbet 2.95 3.15 2.52
Unibet 2.65 3.10 2.65
William Hill 2.80 2.90 2.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.89 ▲ +0.06
X 3.07 ▲ +0.02
2 2.54 ▼ -0.04

2 snapshots recorded, from .