Garuda Lions
Today
Italy Serie B · Full time ·Matchday 1

Benevento vs Modena

1 – 2 Full time

Stadio Ciro Vigorito, BeneventoReferee: Edoardo Manedo Mazzoni, Italy

Benevento 43%
Draw 27%
Modena 30%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Benevento vs Modena overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Benevento vs Modena

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBeneventoDrawModena
Model55.2%21.5%23.3%
Market38.6%29.3%32.1%
Final42.8%27.4%29.9%
Edge+16.5%-7.8%-8.7%

Confidence: Low

Why Benevento

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.27 vs 1.45.
  • The market prices Benevento below the model: +16.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Benevento ↓ / Modena → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 5% 9% 6% 2 6% 9% 7% 3 5% 7% 5% 4+ 5% 7% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 72%
No goals 3%

Benevento and Modena expected goals

Benevento 2.27
Modena 1.45

Total expected goals: 3.72

Benevento and Modena attack and defence ratings

Benevento

Attack 1.36 +36%
Defence 1.50 +50%

Modena

Attack 0.90 -10%
Defence 1.12 +12%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Benevento vs Modena: result vs prediction

Benevento 1 – 2 Modena

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 1 fixtures

Italy Serie B

Before and after this match

Benevento vs Modena markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Benevento 42.8% 2.34 +16.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 71.8% 1.39 — —
Both teams to score Yes 69.5% 1.44 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.6% 1.38 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 44.9% 2.23 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Benevento42.8%
Draw27.4%
Modena29.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571.8%
Under 2.528.2%
Both teams to scoreYes69.5%
No30.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)70.1%
12 (either side)72.6%
X2 (draw or away)57.2%
Handicap -1Benevento win34.8%
Push (exactly one goal)20.3%
Loss44.9%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.0%
1-18.8%
3-16.8%

Benevento vs Modena stats

Benevento and Modena recent form

newest first
Benevento LW
Modena LLLWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.

Benevento vs Modena head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Benevento vs Modena odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 39.0%, draw 29.2%, away 31.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.26 3.35 3.00
1xBet 2.45 3.22 2.87
888Sport 2.25 3.10 3.00
Bet365 2.50 3.20 2.80
BetVictor 2.38 3.20 2.75
Betano 2.52 3.20 2.92
Betfair 2.30 3.20 3.00
Dafabet 2.46 3.30 2.95
Marathonbet 2.42 3.22 2.88
Pinnacle 2.53 3.29 2.95
SBO 2.32 3.12 2.78
Superbet 2.47 3.25 2.95
Unibet 2.23 3.30 3.10
William Hill 2.30 3.00 3.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.44 ▲ +0.04
X 3.21 ▼ -0.01
2 2.94 ▼ -0.02

2 snapshots recorded, from .