Genoa
vs
Sudtirol
1 – 0 Full time
| 45′ | Andrea GiorginiGiacomo Stabile | ||
| 61′ | Mario MitajLorenzo Colombo | ||
| 61′ | Cody DramehStephan El Shaarawy | ||
| 61′ | Lorenzo AngheleKevin Zeroli | ||
| 68′ | Tommaso BaldanziJunior Messias | ||
| 73′ | Mattia PelliniSalvatore Molina | ||
| 73′ | Kenny Meddy MixturAlvin Okoro | ||
| 80′ | Sebastian OtoaJohan Vásquez | ||
| 81′ | Franz-Ethan MeichtryHamed Junior Traorè | ||
| 82′ | Davide VeroliBjarki Steinn Bjarkason | ||
| 87′ | Johan Vásquez |
Match stats
| 27 | Shots | 5 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 53 | Possession % | 47 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Offsides | 2 |
| 2 | Saves | 5 |
| 457 | Accurate passes | 411 |
Genoa vs Sudtirol overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Genoa vs Sudtirol
| Probability | Genoa | Draw | Sudtirol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.0% | 26.3% | 14.8% |
| Market | 59.2% | 23.8% | 16.9% |
| Final | 59.2% | 24.5% | 16.4% |
| Edge | -0.3% | +2.4% | -2.2% |
Why Genoa
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 0.72.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Genoa and Sudtirol expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.38
Genoa and Sudtirol attack and defence ratings
Genoa
Sudtirol
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Genoa vs Sudtirol: result vs prediction
Genoa 1 – 0 Sudtirol
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Round of 32 fixtures
Before and after this match
Genoa vs Sudtirol markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Genoa | 59.2% | 1.69 | -0.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.6% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.5% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.6% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.0% | 2.44 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Genoa | 59.2% |
| Draw | 24.5% | |
| Sudtirol | 16.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.5% |
| No | 57.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Genoa win | 33.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.5% | |
| Loss | 41.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.3% |
| 2-0 | 12.8% | |
| 1-1 | 12.1% |
Genoa vs Sudtirol stats
Genoa vs Sudtirol head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-01 | Sudtirol | Genoa | Serie B | 0-0 |
| 2022-12-08 | Genoa | Sudtirol | Serie B | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Genoa vs Sudtirol odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 59.2%, draw 23.8%, away 16.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.61 | 3.97 | 5.57 |
| Bet365 | 1.60 | 3.90 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.55 | 3.75 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 4.00 | 5.30 |
| Betfair | 1.57 | 4.00 | 5.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.56 | 3.85 | 5.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.60 | 4.11 | 5.69 |
| SBO | 1.57 | 3.67 | 5.13 |
| William Hill | 1.57 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .