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Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 6

Coventry vs Newcastle United

4 – 1 Full time

6′Jack Rudoni
48′Sidiki Cherif
59′Lewis MileyAmar Dedić
59′Jacob MurphyBazoumana Touré
59′Joe WillockJoelinton
61′Ephron Mason-ClarkTatsuhiro Sakamoto
66′Milan van Ewijk
70′Sven Botman
78′Caleb YirenkyiFrank Onyeka
78′Sidiki CherifEllis Simms
78′Yoane WissaWilliam Osula
81′Ellis Simms
81′Joelinton
83′Jack RudoniVictor Torp
83′Matt GrimesStephen Mfuni
86′Stephen Mfuni
90′Bazoumana TouréDan Burn

Coventry Building Society Arena, CoventryReferee: John Brooks

Coventry 34%
Draw 26%
Newcastle United 40%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

9 Shots 19
6 Shots on target 6
33 Possession % 67
2 Corners 6
3 Fouls 10
2 Offsides 5
4 Saves 2
185 Accurate passes 472

Coventry vs Newcastle United overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Coventry vs Newcastle United

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCoventryDrawNewcastle United
Model47.6%25.7%26.7%
Market29.1%26.5%44.4%
Final33.8%26.3%39.9%
Edge+4.6%-0.2%-4.4%

Confidence: Medium · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Newcastle United

  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Coventry ↓ / Newcastle Unit → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 12% 7% 2 7% 9% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 85%
3+ goals 62%
No goals 6%

Coventry and Newcastle United expected goals

Coventry 1.77
Newcastle United 1.36

Total expected goals: 3.12

Coventry and Newcastle United attack and defence ratings

Coventry

Attack 1.01 +1%
Defence 1.11 +11%

Newcastle United

Attack 0.99 -1%
Defence 1.14 +14%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Coventry vs Newcastle United: result vs prediction

Coventry 4 – 1 Newcastle United

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Premier League

Before and after this match

Coventry vs Newcastle United markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Newcastle United 39.9% 2.50 -4.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 62.3% 1.61 — —
Both teams to score Yes 64.2% 1.56 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.7% 1.36 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 73.3% 1.36 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Coventry33.8%
Draw26.3%
Newcastle United39.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.562.3%
Under 2.537.7%
Both teams to scoreYes64.2%
No35.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)60.1%
12 (either side)73.7%
X2 (draw or away)66.2%
Handicap -1Newcastle United win12.3%
Push (exactly one goal)14.4%
Loss73.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.7%
2-19.4%
2-06.9%

Coventry vs Newcastle United stats

Coventry and Newcastle United recent form

newest first
Coventry WLLLLW
Newcastle United WLWDWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Coventry and Newcastle United going into this match

league record before kick-off

Coventry record

  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.

Newcastle United record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Coventry vs Newcastle United head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Coventry vs Newcastle United odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 29.1%, draw 26.5%, away 44.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.48 3.70 2.19
Bet365 3.25 3.60 2.10
BetVictor 3.13 3.70 2.15
Betano 3.35 3.55 2.12
Betfair 3.30 3.60 2.15
Dafabet 3.15 3.60 2.25
Marathonbet 3.42 3.64 2.15
Pinnacle 3.37 3.63 2.19
SBO 2.84 3.22 2.14
William Hill 3.20 3.40 2.15

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.27 ▼ -0.10
X 3.60 —
2 2.15 ▲ +0.10

50 snapshots recorded, from .