Coventry
vs
Newcastle United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Newcastle United
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
Coventry vs Newcastle United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Coventry vs Newcastle United
| Probability | Coventry | Draw | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.7% | 25.6% | 26.7% |
| Market | 28.6% | 26.2% | 45.2% |
| Final | 33.3% | 26.1% | 40.6% |
| Edge | +19.1% | -0.6% | -18.6% |
Why Newcastle United
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Coventry vs Newcastle United match preview
Coventry faces Newcastle United in an upcoming Premier League match, with kickoff scheduled for October 12, 2026. The model indicates a 34% probability of a Coventry victory, while Newcastle United holds a 40% chance of winning, and a draw sits at 26%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-2 in favor of Newcastle, with a 7% likelihood.
In terms of goal expectations, there is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals, and both teams are expected to score 64% of the time. Coventry's expected goals stand at 1.77, compared to Newcastle United's 1.36. Recent form shows Coventry with two wins and three losses in their last six matches, while Newcastle United has achieved four wins, one loss, and one draw in the same period.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Coventry and Newcastle United expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.13
Coventry and Newcastle United attack and defence ratings
Coventry
Newcastle United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Coventry vs Newcastle United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Newcastle United | 40.6% | 2.46 | -18.6% | 2.18 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.4% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.3% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 73.3% | 1.36 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Coventry | 33.3% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| Newcastle United | 40.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.3% |
| No | 35.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Newcastle United win | 12.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14.4% | |
| Loss | 73.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 2-0 | 6.9% |
Coventry vs Newcastle United stats
Coventry and Newcastle United recent form
| Coventry |
WLLLLW |
| Newcastle United |
WLWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Coventry vs Newcastle United head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Coventry vs Newcastle United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.6%, draw 26.2%, away 45.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.45 | 3.75 | 2.18 |
| Bet365 | 3.30 | 3.70 | 2.10 |
| BetVictor | 3.20 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.55 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
| Betfair | 3.30 | 3.50 | 2.05 |
| Dafabet | 3.35 | 3.65 | 2.14 |
| Marathonbet | 3.36 | 3.65 | 2.12 |
| Pinnacle | 3.50 | 3.64 | 2.11 |
| SBO | 2.93 | 3.26 | 2.08 |
| William Hill | 3.30 | 3.50 | 2.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
44 snapshots recorded, from .