League Two
·
Full time
·Matchday 14
Fleetwood Town
vs
Bristol Rovers
3 – 1 Full time
| 10′ | R. Bennett | ||
| 37′ | Aaron Loupalo-Bi | ||
| 45′ | Shaqai FordeJoe Quigley | ||
| 59′ | R. Bennett | ||
| 61′ | Arvin AppiahPhilip Sanyaolu | ||
| 61′ | Fabrizio CavegnReiss-Alexander Russell-Denny | ||
| 72′ | Mark HelmAndy Cannon | ||
| 72′ | Aaron Loupalo-BiWill davies | ||
| 82′ | Lewis McCann | ||
| 84′ | Reiss-Alexander Russell-Denny | ||
| 85′ | Crispin McLeanJosh Robertson | ||
| 90′ | Josh Robertson | ||
| 90′ | Ronan CoughlanJoshua Thomas |
Fleetwood Town
38%
Draw
28%
Bristol Rovers
34%
Match stats
| 21 | Shots | 4 |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 49 | Possession % | 51 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 0 | Saves | 5 |
| 255 | Accurate passes | 275 |
Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers
| Probability | Fleetwood Town | Draw | Bristol Rovers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.1% | 28.3% | 22.6% |
| Market | 34.3% | 27.8% | 37.8% |
| Final | 38.0% | 27.9% | 34.0% |
| Edge | +3.7% | +0.1% | -3.8% |
Why Fleetwood Town
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.52 vs 0.96.
- The market prices Fleetwood Town below our published probability: +3.7 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
90%
2+ goals
72%
3+ goals
45%
No goals
10%
Fleetwood Town and Bristol Rovers expected goals
Fleetwood Town
1.52
Bristol Rovers
0.96
Total expected goals: 2.48
Fleetwood Town and Bristol Rovers attack and defence ratings
Fleetwood Town
Attack
0.98 -2%
Defence
1.05 +5%
Bristol Rovers
Attack
0.77 -23%
Defence
1.09 +9%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers: result vs prediction
Fleetwood Town 3 – 1 Bristol Rovers
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fleetwood Town | 38.0% | 2.63 | +3.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fleetwood Town | 38.0% |
| Draw | 27.9% | |
| Bristol Rovers | 34.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.4% |
| No | 50.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fleetwood Town win | 25.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.4% | |
| Loss | 50.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.4% |
| 1-0 | 11.5% | |
| 2-0 | 9.7% |
Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers stats
Fleetwood Town and Bristol Rovers recent form
| Fleetwood Town |
DLLWDL |
| Bristol Rovers |
DLLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fleetwood Town and Bristol Rovers going into this match
Fleetwood Town record
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bristol Rovers record
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
3Fleetwood Town wins
5Draws
2Bristol Rovers wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Bristol Rovers | Fleetwood Town | League Two | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-09 | Fleetwood Town | Bristol Rovers | League Two | 2-1 |
| 2024-03-12 | Fleetwood Town | Bristol Rovers | League One | 0-0 |
| 2024-02-06 | Bristol Rovers | Fleetwood Town | League One | 0-2 |
| 2023-04-10 | Fleetwood Town | Bristol Rovers | League One | 1-2 |
| 2022-11-12 | Bristol Rovers | Fleetwood Town | League One | 2-2 |
| 2021-02-06 | Fleetwood Town | Bristol Rovers | League One | 0-0 |
| 2020-11-14 | Bristol Rovers | Fleetwood Town | League One | 1-4 |
| 2020-01-25 | Bristol Rovers | Fleetwood Town | League One | 0-0 |
| 2019-12-29 | Fleetwood Town | Bristol Rovers | League One | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.3%, draw 27.8%, away 37.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.65 | 3.32 | 2.45 |
| Bet365 | 2.70 | 3.30 | 2.55 |
| BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.50 |
| Betano | 2.80 | 3.35 | 2.42 |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.45 |
| Dafabet | 2.80 | 3.45 | 2.48 |
| Marathonbet | 2.65 | 3.32 | 2.45 |
| Pinnacle | 2.69 | 3.48 | 2.55 |
| SBO | 2.53 | 3.01 | 2.27 |
| William Hill | 2.70 | 3.25 | 2.45 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.70 ▲ +0.04
X
3.33 ▲ +0.04
2
2.45 ▼ -0.04
11 snapshots recorded, from .