Fleetwood Town
vs
Bristol Rovers
Garuda Lions Prediction: Fleetwood Town
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 0.97.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers
| Probability | Fleetwood Town | Draw | Bristol Rovers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.6% | 27.9% | 22.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 49.6% | 27.9% | 22.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Fleetwood Town
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 0.97.
Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers match preview
Fleetwood Town faces Bristol Rovers in a League Two clash, with Fleetwood Town holding a 50% probability of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0, occurring with an 11% likelihood. Fleetwood's expected goals stand at 1.55, while Bristol Rovers is at 0.97, indicating a potential advantage for the home side in offensive output.
In terms of recent form, Fleetwood Town has struggled, recording two losses followed by a win, a draw, and two more losses. Conversely, Bristol Rovers has managed only one win in their last six matches, with four losses and a draw. The head-to-head record from the last two encounters shows both teams with one win each, suggesting a competitive matchup ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Fleetwood Town and Bristol Rovers expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.52
Fleetwood Town and Bristol Rovers attack and defence ratings
Fleetwood Town
Bristol Rovers
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fleetwood Town | 49.6% | 2.02 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.9% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.6% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fleetwood Town | 49.6% |
| Draw | 27.9% | |
| Bristol Rovers | 22.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.1% |
| No | 49.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fleetwood Town win | 26.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.3% | |
| Loss | 50.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 1-0 | 11.3% | |
| 2-0 | 9.7% |
Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers stats
Fleetwood Town and Bristol Rovers recent form
| Fleetwood Town |
LLWDLL |
| Bristol Rovers |
DLLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fleetwood Town and Bristol Rovers season so far
Fleetwood Town record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bristol Rovers record
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Bristol Rovers | Fleetwood Town | League Two | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-09 | Fleetwood Town | Bristol Rovers | League Two | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.