Fleetwood Town
vs
Rochdale
Garuda Lions Prediction: Fleetwood Town
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 1.04.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale
| Probability | Fleetwood Town | Draw | Rochdale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.5% | 26.3% | 22.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 51.5% | 26.3% | 22.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Fleetwood Town
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 1.04.
Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale match preview
Fleetwood Town is set to face Rochdale in the FA Cup, with a 52% probability of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with an expected goals tally of 1.70 for Fleetwood Town and 1.04 for Rochdale. Recent form shows Fleetwood Town struggling, with two losses in their last three matches, while Rochdale has shown improvement, recording two wins in their last three outings.
In terms of scoring, there is a 54% chance that both teams will find the net, and 52% probability for over 2.5 goals in the match. The head-to-head record over the last ten encounters is evenly matched, with Fleetwood Town securing three wins, Rochdale also with three, and four matches ending in draws. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Fleetwood Town and Rochdale expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.74
Fleetwood Town and Rochdale attack and defence ratings
Fleetwood Town
Rochdale
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Huddersfield vs Exeter City — team news & stats
- Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds
- Bristol Rovers v Cambridge United — match page
- Oxford United vs Stevenage
- Bradford v Marine — match page
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town — team news & stats
- Port Vale vs Scunthorpe — team news & stats
- Accrington ST vs Wycombe
Before and after this match
Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fleetwood Town | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.9% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.5% | 2.06 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fleetwood Town | 51.5% |
| Draw | 26.3% | |
| Rochdale | 22.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.0% |
| No | 46.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fleetwood Town win | 28.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.8% | |
| Loss | 48.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 1-0 | 9.8% | |
| 2-1 | 9.7% |
Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale stats
Fleetwood Town and Rochdale recent form
| Fleetwood Town |
LLWDLL |
| Rochdale |
LDLDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Fleetwood Town | Rochdale | League Two | 1-2 |
| 2024-07-20 | Fleetwood Town | Rochdale | Friendlies Clubs | 1-1 |
| 2021-07-17 | Rochdale | Fleetwood Town | Friendlies Clubs | 3-3 |
| 2021-04-10 | Fleetwood Town | Rochdale | League One | 1-0 |
| 2020-10-03 | Rochdale | Fleetwood Town | League One | 2-1 |
| 2019-12-26 | Rochdale | Fleetwood Town | League One | 2-3 |
| 2019-09-21 | Fleetwood Town | Rochdale | League One | 2-1 |
| 2019-01-19 | Rochdale | Fleetwood Town | League One | 1-1 |
| 2018-10-09 | Fleetwood Town | Rochdale | EFL Trophy | 0-2 |
| 2018-08-18 | Fleetwood Town | Rochdale | League One | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.