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England FA Cup · Full time ·1/128-finals

Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale

1 – 2 Full time

9′Jake Thomas Batty
23′Luke Hannant
34′Harvey Gilmour
45′Olutobi Adebayo-RowlingBryant Bilongo
45′Jamie PatersonEdward Francis
68′Andy CannonMark Helm
68′Jake Thomas BattyDanny Andrew
68′Lewis McCannShaun Rooney
74′Ronan Coughlan
84′Harvey GilmourBabajide Ezekiel Adeeko
84′Luke HannantCian Hayes
90′Aaron Loupalo-BiWill davies
90′Zain Silcott-DuberryRyan East
96′Crispin McLeanJosh Robertson
110′Ronan CoughlanJoshua Thomas
111′Babajide Ezekiel Adeeko
113′Cian Hayes
116′Harrison Neal
117′Glenn MiddletonEthan Ebanks-Landell

Highbury Stadium, Fleetwood

Fleetwood Town 57%
Draw 23%
Rochdale 20%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

17 Shots 9
5 Shots on target 5
53 Possession % 47
10 Corners 2
20 Fouls 14
1 Offsides 3
3 Saves 4

Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFleetwood TownDrawRochdale
Model60.0%22.3%17.7%
Market55.7%23.6%20.7%
Final56.8%23.3%19.9%
Edge+1.1%-0.3%-0.8%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Fleetwood Town

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 1.08.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Fleetwood Town ↓ / Rochdale → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 8% 10% 2 9% 10% 5% 3 6% 7% 4+ 6% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 84%
3+ goals 62%
No goals 5%

Fleetwood Town and Rochdale expected goals

Fleetwood Town 2.10
Rochdale 1.08

Total expected goals: 3.18

Fleetwood Town and Rochdale attack and defence ratings

Fleetwood Town

Attack 0.94 -6%
Defence 0.88 -12%

Rochdale

Attack 0.83 -17%
Defence 1.23 +23%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale: result vs prediction

Fleetwood Town 1 – 2 Rochdale

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

England FA Cup

Before and after this match

Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Fleetwood Town 56.8% 1.76 +1.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 61.6% 1.62 — —
Both teams to score Yes 58.8% 1.70 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 80.1% 1.25 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 40.0% 2.50 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Fleetwood Town56.8%
Draw23.3%
Rochdale19.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561.6%
Under 2.538.4%
Both teams to scoreYes58.8%
No41.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)80.1%
12 (either side)76.7%
X2 (draw or away)43.2%
Handicap -1Fleetwood Town win37.7%
Push (exactly one goal)22.2%
Loss40.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.4%
2-19.9%
2-09.2%

Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale stats

Fleetwood Town and Rochdale recent form

newest first
Fleetwood Town WDLLWD
Rochdale LLDLDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Fleetwood Town wins 4Draws 3Rochdale wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-09-26Fleetwood TownRochdaleLeague Two1-2
2024-07-20Fleetwood TownRochdaleFriendlies Clubs1-1
2021-07-17RochdaleFleetwood TownFriendlies Clubs3-3
2021-04-10Fleetwood TownRochdaleLeague One1-0
2020-10-03RochdaleFleetwood TownLeague One2-1
2019-12-26RochdaleFleetwood TownLeague One2-3
2019-09-21Fleetwood TownRochdaleLeague One2-1
2019-01-19RochdaleFleetwood TownLeague One1-1
2018-10-09Fleetwood TownRochdaleEFL Trophy0-2
2018-08-18Fleetwood TownRochdaleLeague One2-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 55.7%, draw 23.6%, away 20.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.69 3.94 4.46
Bet365 1.67 4.00 4.75
BetVictor 1.65 3.75 4.40
Betano 1.70 3.80 4.60
Betfair 1.67 4.00 4.50
Dafabet 1.73 4.00 4.70
Marathonbet 1.67 3.94 4.50
Pinnacle 1.69 3.99 4.67
SBO 1.57 3.46 4.13
William Hill 1.67 3.60 4.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.67 ▼ -0.02
X 3.94 —
2 4.50 ▼ -0.05

3 snapshots recorded, from .