Port Vale
vs
Rochdale
Garuda Lions Prediction: Port Vale
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Port Vale vs Rochdale overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Port Vale vs Rochdale
| Probability | Port Vale | Draw | Rochdale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.0% | 32.1% | 32.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 36.0% | 32.1% | 32.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Port Vale
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Port Vale vs Rochdale match preview
Port Vale faces Rochdale in a League Two matchup with kick-off scheduled for October 31, 2026. According to our model, Port Vale has a 36% chance of winning, while both a draw and a Rochdale victory are each estimated at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Port Vale, with a probability of 12%. The expected goals for Port Vale stand at 1.12, slightly ahead of Rochdale's 1.04.
In terms of recent form, Port Vale has recorded one win in their last six matches, with a sequence of results including a loss, draw, and two wins. Rochdale, on the other hand, has shown some improvement with two wins in their last six games, though they also have three draws. The model suggests a 37% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Port Vale and Rochdale expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.16
Port Vale and Rochdale attack and defence ratings
Port Vale
Rochdale
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Port Vale vs Rochdale markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Port Vale | 36.0% | 2.78 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 63.3% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.0% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.0% | 1.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Port Vale | 36.0% |
| Draw | 32.1% | |
| Rochdale | 32.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 63.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.0% |
| No | 55.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Port Vale win | 15.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 64.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.8% |
| 0-0 | 12.8% | |
| 1-0 | 11.5% |
Port Vale vs Rochdale stats
Port Vale and Rochdale recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Port Vale and Rochdale season so far
Port Vale record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
Rochdale record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.