Accrington ST
vs
Northampton
Garuda Lions Prediction: Accrington ST
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.74.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Accrington ST vs Northampton overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Accrington ST vs Northampton
| Probability | Accrington ST | Draw | Northampton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.4% | 29.5% | 18.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 52.4% | 29.5% | 18.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Accrington ST
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.74.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Accrington ST vs Northampton match preview
Accrington ST hosts Northampton in a League Two clash on October 31, 2026. According to our model, Accrington ST holds a 52% probability of winning, while Northampton has an 18% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Accrington ST, with an expected goals tally of 1.43 for them compared to 0.74 for Northampton.
In terms of recent form, Accrington ST has shown consistency with a record of W-D-W-D-W-D, while Northampton's performance has been mixed, registering W-L-W-D-L-L. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 37%, and both teams to score stands at 41%. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate confidence in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Accrington ST and Northampton expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.17
Accrington ST and Northampton attack and defence ratings
Accrington ST
Northampton
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Accrington ST vs Northampton markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Accrington ST | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 63.0% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.0% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.9% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.6% | 2.10 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Accrington ST | 52.4% |
| Draw | 29.5% | |
| Northampton | 18.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 63.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.0% |
| No | 59.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Accrington ST win | 27.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.4% | |
| Loss | 47.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.1% |
| 1-1 | 13.3% | |
| 0-0 | 12.6% |
Accrington ST vs Northampton stats
Accrington ST and Northampton recent form
| Accrington ST |
WDWDWD |
| Northampton |
WLWDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Accrington ST and Northampton season so far
Accrington ST record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Northampton record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.