League Two
·
Full time
·Matchday 14
Accrington ST
vs
Northampton
1 – 1 Full time
| 5′ | Charlie Warren | ||
| 45′ | Sam HoskinsTyrese Fornah | ||
| 45′ | James Maxwelljosh powell | ||
| 46′ | M. Warhurst | ||
| 66′ | Elliott Moore | ||
| 67′ | Farrend RawsonTom William Moore | ||
| 75′ | Stefan Mols | ||
| 75′ | Owen DaleElliott List | ||
| 76′ | Connor Lemonheigh-EvansJoe O'Brien Whitmarsh | ||
| 76′ | Charlie WarrenConor Grant | ||
| 76′ | Stefan MolsShaun Whalley | ||
| 90′ | Elliott List |
Accrington ST
46%
Draw
29%
Northampton
25%
Match stats
| 17 | Shots | 7 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 51 | Possession % | 49 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 1 | Saves | 3 |
| 198 | Accurate passes | 202 |
Accrington ST vs Northampton overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Accrington ST vs Northampton
| Probability | Accrington ST | Draw | Northampton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.4% | 29.5% | 18.1% |
| Market | 43.7% | 28.9% | 27.4% |
| Final | 45.9% | 29.0% | 25.1% |
| Edge | +2.2% | +0.2% | -2.3% |
Why Accrington ST
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.73.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Accrington ST below our published probability: +2.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
87%
2+ goals
65%
3+ goals
37%
No goals
13%
Accrington ST and Northampton expected goals
Accrington ST
1.43
Northampton
0.73
Total expected goals: 2.17
Accrington ST and Northampton attack and defence ratings
Accrington ST
Attack
1.29 +29%
Defence
0.86 -14%
Northampton
Attack
0.73 -27%
Defence
0.78 -22%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Accrington ST vs Northampton: result vs prediction
Accrington ST 1 – 1 Northampton
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Accrington ST vs Northampton markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Accrington ST | 45.9% | 2.18 | +2.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 63.1% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.9% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.5% | 2.11 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Accrington ST | 45.9% |
| Draw | 29.0% | |
| Northampton | 25.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 63.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.9% |
| No | 59.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Accrington ST win | 27.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.5% | |
| Loss | 47.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.2% |
| 1-1 | 13.3% | |
| 0-0 | 12.6% |
Accrington ST vs Northampton stats
Accrington ST and Northampton recent form
| Accrington ST |
WDWDWD |
| Northampton |
WLWDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Accrington ST and Northampton going into this match
Accrington ST record
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
Northampton record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Accrington ST vs Northampton head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
3Accrington ST wins
2Draws
5Northampton wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-02-06 | Accrington ST | Northampton | League One | 0-0 |
| 2020-11-14 | Northampton | Accrington ST | League One | 0-1 |
| 2015-12-28 | Northampton | Accrington ST | League Two | 1-0 |
| 2015-08-29 | Accrington ST | Northampton | League Two | 1-1 |
| 2015-01-31 | Accrington ST | Northampton | League Two | 1-5 |
| 2014-09-20 | Northampton | Accrington ST | League Two | 4-5 |
| 2014-04-05 | Accrington ST | Northampton | League Two | 0-1 |
| 2013-11-30 | Northampton | Accrington ST | League Two | 1-0 |
| 2012-11-10 | Accrington ST | Northampton | League Two | 2-4 |
| 2012-03-17 | Accrington ST | Northampton | League Two | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Accrington ST vs Northampton odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.7%, draw 28.9%, away 27.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.12 | 3.16 | 3.42 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.25 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.18 | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.18 | 3.30 | 3.45 |
| Marathonbet | 2.10 | 3.16 | 3.40 |
| Pinnacle | 2.23 | 3.22 | 3.43 |
| SBO | 2.02 | 2.95 | 2.98 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.25 | 3.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.13 ▼ -0.09
X
3.24 ▲ +0.04
2
3.41 ▲ +0.21
11 snapshots recorded, from .