Accrington ST
vs
Wycombe
Garuda Lions Prediction: Accrington ST
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 1.09.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Accrington ST vs Wycombe overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Accrington ST vs Wycombe
| Probability | Accrington ST | Draw | Wycombe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60.6% | 21.9% | 17.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 60.6% | 21.9% | 17.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Accrington ST
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 1.09.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Accrington ST vs Wycombe match preview
Accrington ST is favored to win against Wycombe in their upcoming FA Cup match, with a 61% probability of victory according to our model. The expected goals for Accrington ST stand at 2.15, while Wycombe's expected goals are significantly lower at 1.09. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Accrington ST, with a 10% likelihood.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Accrington ST recording three wins and three draws in their last six matches, while Wycombe has two wins, three draws, and one loss in the same timeframe. Additionally, there is a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored, and a 60% chance that both teams will find the net during the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Accrington ST and Wycombe expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.24
Accrington ST and Wycombe attack and defence ratings
Accrington ST
Wycombe
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
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- Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds
- Bristol Rovers v Cambridge United — match page
- Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale — team news & stats
- Oxford United vs Stevenage
- Bradford v Marine — match page
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town — team news & stats
- Port Vale vs Scunthorpe — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Accrington ST vs Wycombe markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Accrington ST | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.6% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.5% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.4% | 2.54 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Accrington ST | 60.6% |
| Draw | 21.9% | |
| Wycombe | 17.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.6% |
| No | 40.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Accrington ST win | 38.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 39.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.0% |
Accrington ST vs Wycombe stats
Accrington ST and Wycombe recent form
| Accrington ST |
WDWDWD |
| Wycombe |
DDWLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.