Port Vale
vs
Accrington ST
4 – 2 Full time
Port Vale vs Accrington ST overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Port Vale vs Accrington ST
| Probability | Port Vale | Draw | Accrington ST |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.2% | 28.3% | 38.5% |
| Market | 46.6% | 28.4% | 25.0% |
| Final | 43.2% | 28.4% | 28.4% |
| Edge | -3.3% | -0.0% | +3.4% |
Why Port Vale
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Port Vale and Accrington ST expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.69
Port Vale and Accrington ST attack and defence ratings
Port Vale
Accrington ST
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Port Vale vs Accrington ST: result vs prediction
Port Vale 4 – 2 Accrington ST
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Port Vale vs Accrington ST markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Port Vale | 43.2% | 2.31 | -3.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.6% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.8% | 1.50 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Port Vale | 43.2% |
| Draw | 28.4% | |
| Accrington ST | 28.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.9% |
| No | 44.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Port Vale win | 15.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.2% | |
| Loss | 66.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | |
| 0-1 | 8.3% |
Port Vale vs Accrington ST stats
Port Vale and Accrington ST recent form
| Port Vale |
WWLDWW |
| Accrington ST |
LDWDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Port Vale and Accrington ST going into this match
Port Vale record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Accrington ST record
- They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 14 matches.
Port Vale vs Accrington ST head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-07 | Accrington ST | Port Vale | EFL Trophy | 0-2 |
| 2025-02-01 | Port Vale | Accrington ST | League Two | 2-1 |
| 2024-09-21 | Accrington ST | Port Vale | League Two | 2-2 |
| 2023-04-07 | Accrington ST | Port Vale | League One | 3-0 |
| 2023-02-07 | Port Vale | Accrington ST | League One | 1-1 |
| 2021-11-06 | Port Vale | Accrington ST | FA Cup | 5-1 |
| 2018-01-20 | Accrington ST | Port Vale | League Two | 3-2 |
| 2017-09-26 | Port Vale | Accrington ST | League Two | 1-2 |
| 2013-02-02 | Port Vale | Accrington ST | League Two | 3-0 |
| 2012-08-21 | Accrington ST | Port Vale | League Two | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Port Vale vs Accrington ST odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.6%, draw 28.4%, away 25.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.97 | 3.26 | 3.76 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.70 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| Betano | 2.07 | 3.25 | 3.60 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.07 | 3.40 | 3.70 |
| Marathonbet | 1.95 | 3.26 | 3.74 |
| Pinnacle | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.89 |
| SBO | 1.96 | 2.98 | 3.30 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.10 | 3.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
23 snapshots recorded, from .