Barnet
vs
Port Vale
Garuda Lions Prediction: Barnet
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.15.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Barnet vs Port Vale overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Barnet vs Port Vale
| Probability | Barnet | Draw | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.7% | 21.9% | 18.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 59.7% | 21.9% | 18.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Barnet
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.15.
Barnet vs Port Vale match preview
Barnet will face Port Vale in a League Two matchup, with the model indicating a 60% probability of a Barnet victory, while Port Vale sits at 18%. The expected goals suggest a strong offensive performance from Barnet, projected at 2.17 compared to Port Vale's 1.15. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Barnet, which aligns with the model's forecast of a high-scoring game, as there is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% likelihood that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Barnet has recorded a mixed set of results with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while Port Vale has been more consistent with four wins, one draw, and one loss. This context adds intrigue to the fixture, with Barnet looking to capitalize on their home advantage.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Barnet and Port Vale expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.32
Barnet and Port Vale attack and defence ratings
Barnet
Port Vale
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Barnet vs Port Vale markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barnet | 59.7% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.6% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.5% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.6% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.3% | 2.48 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barnet | 59.7% |
| Draw | 21.9% | |
| Port Vale | 18.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.5% |
| No | 38.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Barnet win | 38.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 40.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.5% |
Barnet vs Port Vale stats
Barnet and Port Vale recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Barnet and Port Vale season so far
Barnet record
- They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Port Vale record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).