Northampton
vs
Rochdale
Garuda Lions Prediction: Northampton
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Northampton vs Rochdale overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Northampton vs Rochdale
| Probability | Northampton | Draw | Rochdale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.7% | 30.3% | 33.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 36.7% | 30.3% | 33.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Northampton
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Northampton vs Rochdale match preview
Northampton faces Rochdale in a League Two matchup with both teams showing mixed recent form. Northampton's last five matches resulted in two wins, two losses, and one draw, while Rochdale has recorded one win, three draws, and one loss in their recent outings. According to our model, Northampton has a 37% chance of winning, with a 30% probability of a draw and Rochdale at 33%. The expected goals for Northampton are 1.24, slightly ahead of Rochdale's 1.16.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with a 10% likelihood. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams are given a 50% probability of scoring. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Northampton and Rochdale expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.40
Northampton and Rochdale attack and defence ratings
Northampton
Rochdale
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Northampton vs Rochdale markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Northampton | 36.7% | 2.73 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.0% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.7% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.3% | 1.58 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Northampton | 36.7% |
| Draw | 30.3% | |
| Rochdale | 33.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.0% |
| No | 50.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Northampton win | 16.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.2% | |
| Loss | 63.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.4% |
| 0-0 | 10.4% | |
| 1-0 | 9.9% |
Northampton vs Rochdale stats
Northampton and Rochdale recent form
| Northampton |
LLDWLW |
| Rochdale |
WLLDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Northampton and Rochdale season so far
Northampton record
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 13 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rochdale record
- They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.