Chesterfield
vs
Shrewsbury
Garuda Lions Prediction: Chesterfield
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.45 vs 1.72.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury
| Probability | Chesterfield | Draw | Shrewsbury |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.4% | 20.4% | 26.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 53.4% | 20.4% | 26.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Chesterfield
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.45 vs 1.72.
Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury match preview
Chesterfield faces Shrewsbury in a League Two matchup, with Chesterfield holding a 53% probability of winning according to our model. The expected goals for Chesterfield are 2.45, while Shrewsbury is projected to score 1.72. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Chesterfield, which occurs with an 8% probability.
Recent form shows Chesterfield with a record of W-L-W-D-L-D, while Shrewsbury has W-L-D-W-W-L. Both teams have a high likelihood of scoring, with our model indicating a 76% chance that both teams will find the net. Additionally, there is a 79% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Chesterfield and Shrewsbury expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.17
Chesterfield and Shrewsbury attack and defence ratings
Chesterfield
Shrewsbury
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chesterfield | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.6% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.7% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 79.6% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.6% | 2.14 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chesterfield | 53.4% |
| Draw | 20.4% | |
| Shrewsbury | 26.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 21.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.7% |
| No | 24.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Chesterfield win | 34.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.2% | |
| Loss | 46.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.0% |
| 1-1 | 7.2% | |
| 2-2 | 6.9% |
Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury stats
Chesterfield and Shrewsbury recent form
| Chesterfield |
WLWDLD |
| Shrewsbury |
WLDWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Chesterfield and Shrewsbury season so far
Chesterfield record
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
Shrewsbury record
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Chesterfield | Shrewsbury | League Two | 2-3 |
| 2025-12-20 | Shrewsbury | Chesterfield | League Two | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.