Grimsby
vs
Rotherham
Garuda Lions Prediction: Grimsby
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.59 vs 1.48.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Grimsby vs Rotherham overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Grimsby vs Rotherham
| Probability | Grimsby | Draw | Rotherham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60.8% | 19.2% | 19.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 60.8% | 19.2% | 19.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Grimsby
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.59 vs 1.48.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Grimsby vs Rotherham match preview
Grimsby is set to host Rotherham in a League Two clash, with the model indicating a strong probability of a Grimsby victory at 61%. The expected goals suggest a dominant performance from Grimsby, projected at 2.59 compared to Rotherham's 1.48. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, occurring with an 8% probability.
Recent form shows Grimsby with a mixed record of D-W-W-D-L-L, while Rotherham has struggled, recording W-L-D-D-L-L. The model also highlights a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 77% and both teams scoring at 72%, indicating an expectation of an engaging match with multiple chances. The confidence grade for this forecast is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Grimsby and Rotherham expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.07
Grimsby and Rotherham attack and defence ratings
Grimsby
Rotherham
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
- Northampton v Rochdale — match page
- Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury — team news & stats
- Oldham vs Exeter City
- Accrington ST v Salford City — match page
- Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town — team news & stats
- Barnet v Port Vale — match page
- Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers — team news & stats
- Tranmere vs Colchester
Before and after this match
Grimsby vs Rotherham markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Grimsby | 60.8% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.3% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 80.8% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Grimsby win | 41.1% | 2.44 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Grimsby | 60.8% |
| Draw | 19.2% | |
| Rotherham | 19.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 22.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.1% |
| No | 27.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Grimsby win | 41.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.8% | |
| Loss | 39.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.5% |
| 3-1 | 7.3% | |
| 1-1 | 7.2% |
Grimsby vs Rotherham stats
Grimsby and Rotherham recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Grimsby and Rotherham season so far
Grimsby record
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 14 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Rotherham record
- They have won 2 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 14 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.