Garuda Lions
Today
League Two · Full time ·Matchday 15

Swindon Town vs Grimsby

1 – 4 Full time

County Ground, Swindon

Swindon Town 30%
Draw 25%
Grimsby 45%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Swindon Town vs Grimsby overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Swindon Town vs Grimsby

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySwindon TownDrawGrimsby
Model33.1%25.7%41.2%
Market28.6%25.2%46.2%
Final29.8%25.3%44.9%
Edge+1.1%+0.1%-1.2%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Swindon Town ↓ / Grimsby → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 6% 1 12% 9% 2 8% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 83%
3+ goals 61%
No goals 5%

Swindon Town and Grimsby expected goals

Swindon Town 1.48
Grimsby 1.66

Total expected goals: 3.14

Swindon Town and Grimsby attack and defence ratings

Swindon Town

Attack 0.88 -12%
Defence 0.95 -5%

Grimsby

Attack 1.48 +48%
Defence 1.19 +19%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Swindon Town vs Grimsby: result vs prediction

Swindon Town 1 – 4 Grimsby

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

League Two

Before and after this match

Swindon Town vs Grimsby markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Grimsby 44.9% 2.23 -1.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 60.7% 1.65 — —
Both teams to score Yes 63.5% 1.57 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.7% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 58.8% 1.70 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Swindon Town29.8%
Draw25.3%
Grimsby44.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560.7%
Under 2.539.3%
Both teams to scoreYes63.5%
No36.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)55.1%
12 (either side)74.7%
X2 (draw or away)70.2%
Handicap -1Grimsby win21.7%
Push (exactly one goal)19.4%
Loss58.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.7%
1-28.8%
2-17.8%

Swindon Town vs Grimsby stats

Swindon Town and Grimsby recent form

newest first
Swindon Town LWDWDL
Grimsby DWWDLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Swindon Town and Grimsby going into this match

league record before kick-off

Swindon Town record

  • They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 14 matches.
  • 52% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Grimsby record

  • They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 14 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

Swindon Town vs Grimsby head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

7Swindon Town wins 1Draws 2Grimsby wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-25GrimsbySwindon TownLeague Two4-0
2025-11-22Swindon TownGrimsbyLeague Two2-2
2025-04-18GrimsbySwindon TownLeague Two0-4
2024-12-21Swindon TownGrimsbyLeague Two3-1
2024-04-20GrimsbySwindon TownLeague Two2-0
2023-09-30Swindon TownGrimsbyLeague Two2-1
2023-01-14Swindon TownGrimsbyLeague Two5-0
2022-09-24GrimsbySwindon TownLeague Two1-2
2020-02-22Swindon TownGrimsbyLeague Two3-1
2019-12-07GrimsbySwindon TownLeague Two0-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Swindon Town vs Grimsby odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 28.6%, draw 25.2%, away 46.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.26 3.70 1.99
Bet365 3.40 3.60 2.00
BetVictor 3.25 3.70 2.05
Betano 3.25 3.65 2.05
Betfair 3.30 3.75 2.00
Dafabet 3.30 3.75 2.08
Marathonbet 3.24 3.70 1.97
Pinnacle 3.26 3.91 2.06
SBO 2.88 3.20 2.04
William Hill 3.10 3.60 2.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.25 ▲ +0.01
X 3.70 ▲ +0.05
2 2.02 ▲ +0.01

23 snapshots recorded, from .