Rochdale vs York overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Rochdale vs York
| Probability | Rochdale | Draw | York |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.5% | 21.5% | 51.0% |
| Market | 23.0% | 23.8% | 53.2% |
| Final | 24.1% | 23.2% | 52.7% |
| Edge | +1.1% | -0.6% | -0.6% |
Why York
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.27 vs 1.66.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Rochdale and York expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.94
Rochdale and York attack and defence ratings
Rochdale
York
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Rochdale vs York: result vs prediction
Rochdale 0 – 1 York
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Rochdale vs York markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | York | 52.7% | 1.90 | -0.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.8% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.0% | 2.04 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rochdale | 24.1% |
| Draw | 23.2% | |
| York | 52.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 24.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.4% |
| No | 26.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 47.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | York win | 31.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.4% | |
| Loss | 49.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 8.4% |
| 1-1 | 8.1% | |
| 2-2 | 7.0% |
Rochdale vs York stats
Rochdale and York recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Rochdale and York going into this match
Rochdale record
- They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
York record
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rochdale vs York head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Rochdale | York | National League | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-11 | York | Rochdale | National League | 4-1 |
| 2025-10-11 | Rochdale | York | England FA Cup | 1-2 |
| 2025-03-25 | Rochdale | York | National League | 0-4 |
| 2024-08-20 | York | Rochdale | National League | 1-0 |
| 2023-12-16 | Rochdale | York | National League | 0-0 |
| 2023-08-28 | York | Rochdale | National League | 1-3 |
| 2014-04-05 | Rochdale | York | League Two | 0-0 |
| 2013-11-30 | York | Rochdale | League Two | 0-0 |
| 2013-03-12 | York | Rochdale | League Two | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Rochdale vs York odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 23.0%, draw 23.8%, away 53.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.05 | 3.94 | 1.73 |
| Bet365 | 4.10 | 3.90 | 1.75 |
| BetVictor | 4.33 | 3.90 | 1.73 |
| Betano | 4.05 | 3.85 | 1.78 |
| Betfair | 4.20 | 4.00 | 1.75 |
| Dafabet | 4.20 | 4.00 | 1.78 |
| Marathonbet | 4.05 | 3.94 | 1.71 |
| Pinnacle | 4.05 | 4.12 | 1.79 |
| SBO | 3.83 | 3.52 | 1.65 |
| William Hill | 4.00 | 3.75 | 1.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
23 snapshots recorded, from .