Garuda Lions
Today
England FA Cup · Full time ·1/128-finals

York vs Northampton

4 – 0 Full time

1′Ollie Pearce
11′Ollie Pearce
12′Zach JeacockJ. Dadge
29′Alex Hunt
41′Joe Wormleighton
45′Mark KitchingZech Medley
45′Max DycheConor McCarthy
61′Harry BoyesAlex Newby
61′Alex HuntFrankie Maguire
61′Hiram BoatengJ. Stones
66′Elliott ListLogan briggs
66′Jon Guthriejosh powell
73′Ollie Pearcejovan malcolm
81′J. Stones

York`s LNER Community Stadium, York

York 48%
Draw 28%
Northampton 24%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 11
6 Shots on target 2
66 Possession % 34
5 Corners 2
6 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 0
2 Saves 2

York vs Northampton overview

Garuda Lions analysis: York vs Northampton

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityYorkDrawNorthampton
Model38.8%33.1%28.2%
Market51.6%25.7%22.6%
Final48.4%27.6%24.0%
Edge-3.2%+1.8%+1.4%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

York ↓ / Northampton → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 15% 11% 1 13% 15% 2 8% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 85%
2+ goals 61%
3+ goals 33%
No goals 15%

York and Northampton expected goals

York 1.12
Northampton 0.91

Total expected goals: 2.03

York and Northampton attack and defence ratings

York

Attack 0.97 -3%
Defence 1.03 +3%

Northampton

Attack 0.60 -40%
Defence 0.63 -37%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

York vs Northampton: result vs prediction

York 4 – 0 Northampton

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

England FA Cup

Before and after this match

York vs Northampton markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 York 48.4% 2.07 -3.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 66.9% 1.49 — —
Both teams to score No 58.4% 1.71 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 76.0% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 61.2% 1.63 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2York48.4%
Draw27.6%
Northampton24.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.533.1%
Under 2.566.9%
Both teams to scoreYes41.6%
No58.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)76.0%
12 (either side)72.4%
X2 (draw or away)51.6%
Handicap -1York win16.6%
Push (exactly one goal)22.2%
Loss61.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.7%
0-014.5%
1-013.3%

York vs Northampton stats

York and Northampton recent form

newest first
York LLWDDD
Northampton LDWLWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

York vs Northampton head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

3York wins 3Draws 3Northampton wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-10-10YorkNorthamptonLeague Two1-1
2016-02-23YorkNorthamptonLeague Two1-2
2016-02-06NorthamptonYorkLeague Two2-0
2015-02-21NorthamptonYorkLeague Two3-0
2014-08-16YorkNorthamptonLeague Two1-1
2014-01-11NorthamptonYorkLeague Two0-2
2013-08-03YorkNorthamptonLeague Two1-0
2013-04-13NorthamptonYorkLeague Two0-2
2012-11-06YorkNorthamptonLeague Two1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

York vs Northampton odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 51.6%, draw 25.7%, away 22.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.81 3.64 4.13
Bet365 1.83 3.60 4.20
BetVictor 1.75 3.50 4.10
Betano 1.83 3.50 4.20
Betfair 1.80 3.70 4.00
Dafabet 1.88 3.70 4.20
Marathonbet 1.79 3.64 4.15
Pinnacle 1.81 3.95 4.05
SBO 1.79 3.08 3.52
William Hill 1.80 3.40 4.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.81 ▲ +0.01
X 3.62 ▲ +0.05
2 4.12 —

3 snapshots recorded, from .