York
vs
Northampton
Garuda Lions Prediction: York
1 – 0 Predicted score · 17% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.20 vs 0.68.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
York vs Northampton overview
Garuda Lions analysis: York vs Northampton
| Probability | York | Draw | Northampton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.5% | 33.0% | 19.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 47.5% | 33.0% | 19.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why York
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.20 vs 0.68.
York vs Northampton match preview
York faces Northampton in the FA Cup with York holding a 47% probability of winning, compared to Northampton's 20%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of York, with a 17% likelihood. Expected goals suggest York will score 1.20 while Northampton is projected at 0.68.
Recent form indicates York has had mixed results with a record of W-D-D-D-W-L, while Northampton has struggled, posting W-L-W-D-L-L in their last matches. The head-to-head record over the last nine encounters shows an even split, with each team securing three wins and three draws. Our model indicates a 29% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% probability that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
York and Northampton expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.88
York and Northampton attack and defence ratings
York
Northampton
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Huddersfield vs Exeter City — team news & stats
- Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds
- Bristol Rovers v Cambridge United — match page
- Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale — team news & stats
- Oxford United vs Stevenage
- Bradford v Marine — match page
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town — team news & stats
- Port Vale vs Scunthorpe — team news & stats
Before and after this match
York vs Northampton markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | York | 47.5% | 2.11 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 71.0% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 64.4% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.4% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.5% | 1.90 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | York | 47.5% |
| Draw | 33.0% | |
| Northampton | 19.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 71.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35.6% |
| No | 64.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | York win | 21.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.7% | |
| Loss | 52.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 17.1% |
| 0-0 | 16.5% | |
| 1-1 | 13.7% |
York vs Northampton stats
York and Northampton recent form
| York |
WDDDWL |
| Northampton |
WLWDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
York vs Northampton head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | York | Northampton | League Two | 1-1 |
| 2016-02-23 | York | Northampton | League Two | 1-2 |
| 2016-02-06 | Northampton | York | League Two | 2-0 |
| 2015-02-21 | Northampton | York | League Two | 3-0 |
| 2014-08-16 | York | Northampton | League Two | 1-1 |
| 2014-01-11 | Northampton | York | League Two | 0-2 |
| 2013-08-03 | York | Northampton | League Two | 1-0 |
| 2013-04-13 | Northampton | York | League Two | 0-2 |
| 2012-11-06 | York | Northampton | League Two | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.