Northampton
vs
Oldham
Garuda Lions Prediction: Northampton
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.21 vs 0.85.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Northampton vs Oldham overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Northampton vs Oldham
| Probability | Northampton | Draw | Oldham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.1% | 32.2% | 24.7% |
| Market | 32.1% | 30.0% | 37.9% |
| Final | 34.9% | 30.6% | 34.6% |
| Edge | +2.8% | +0.5% | -3.3% |
Why Northampton
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.21 vs 0.85.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Northampton below our published probability: +2.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 3.00, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.6% per unit staked (our 34.9% × 3.00 − 1).
Northampton vs Oldham match preview
Northampton hosts Oldham in a League Two clash with both teams showing mixed recent form. Northampton's last six matches include three wins and three losses, while Oldham has drawn two and lost four of their last six games. According to our model, Northampton has a 43% probability of winning, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 14%. The expected goals for Northampton stand at 1.21, compared to Oldham's 0.85.
In terms of scoring, there's a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals, and both teams are given a 42% probability of scoring. Historically, the last nine encounters between the two teams show a competitive edge for Northampton, with four wins compared to Oldham's three. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Northampton and Oldham expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.07
Northampton and Oldham attack and defence ratings
Northampton
Oldham
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Northampton vs Oldham markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Northampton | 34.9% | 2.87 | +2.8% | 3.00 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.8% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.3% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.4% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Northampton | 34.9% |
| Draw | 30.6% | |
| Oldham | 34.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.7% |
| No | 58.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Northampton win | 19.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.5% | |
| Loss | 56.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.4% |
| 1-0 | 14.0% | |
| 0-0 | 14.0% |
Northampton vs Oldham stats
Northampton and Oldham recent form
| Northampton |
WLWDLL |
| Oldham |
DLWDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Northampton and Oldham season so far
Northampton record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Oldham record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
Northampton vs Oldham head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-01 | Oldham | Northampton | England FA Cup | 3-1 |
| 2022-04-15 | Oldham | Northampton | League Two | 0-2 |
| 2021-11-23 | Northampton | Oldham | League Two | 2-1 |
| 2019-11-02 | Oldham | Northampton | League Two | 2-2 |
| 2019-05-04 | Oldham | Northampton | League Two | 2-5 |
| 2018-10-27 | Northampton | Oldham | League Two | 2-1 |
| 2018-05-05 | Northampton | Oldham | League One | 2-2 |
| 2017-12-09 | Oldham | Northampton | League One | 5-1 |
| 2017-02-28 | Northampton | Oldham | League One | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Northampton vs Oldham odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.2%, draw 29.9%, away 37.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.84 | 3.08 | 2.45 |
| Betano | 2.95 | 3.10 | 2.45 |
| Betfair | 2.90 | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 3.00 | 3.20 | 2.47 |
| Marathonbet | 2.84 | 3.08 | 2.45 |
| Pinnacle | 2.73 | 3.15 | 2.64 |
| William Hill | 2.88 | 2.90 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
16 snapshots recorded, from .