Northampton
vs
Oldham
Garuda Lions Prediction: Oldham
0 – 1 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Northampton vs Oldham overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Northampton vs Oldham
| Probability | Northampton | Draw | Oldham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.9% | 32.2% | 35.9% |
| Market | 35.1% | 29.6% | 35.3% |
| Final | 34.3% | 30.3% | 35.4% |
| Edge | -3.3% | +2.6% | +0.7% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.65, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Northampton vs Oldham match preview
Northampton faces Oldham in their upcoming League Two clash, with model probabilities indicating a 27% chance of a Northampton win, a 33% likelihood of a draw, and a 41% probability of an Oldham victory. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 14% chance of occurring. Expected goals suggest Northampton will score 0.89 while Oldham is projected to net 1.16.
In terms of recent form, Northampton has struggled with two losses, one win, two draws, and another loss in their last six matches. Oldham's form has been similarly inconsistent, recording three losses, one draw, and one win in their last six games. Both teams have a 42% chance of scoring, with the probability of over 2.5 goals at 34%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Northampton and Oldham expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.15
Northampton and Oldham attack and defence ratings
Northampton
Oldham
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Northampton vs Oldham markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oldham | 35.4% | 2.82 | +0.7% | 2.65 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 63.7% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.4% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.7% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.2% | 1.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Northampton | 34.3% |
| Draw | 30.3% | |
| Oldham | 35.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 63.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.6% |
| No | 55.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Oldham win | 15.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 64.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.8% |
| 0-0 | 13.0% | |
| 0-1 | 11.7% |
Northampton vs Oldham stats
Northampton and Oldham recent form
| Northampton |
LLWDDL |
| Oldham |
LLLLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Northampton and Oldham season so far
Northampton record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Oldham record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
Northampton vs Oldham head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-01 | Oldham | Northampton | England FA Cup | 3-1 |
| 2022-04-15 | Oldham | Northampton | League Two | 0-2 |
| 2021-11-23 | Northampton | Oldham | League Two | 2-1 |
| 2019-11-02 | Oldham | Northampton | League Two | 2-2 |
| 2019-05-04 | Oldham | Northampton | League Two | 2-5 |
| 2018-10-27 | Northampton | Oldham | League Two | 2-1 |
| 2018-05-05 | Northampton | Oldham | League One | 2-2 |
| 2017-12-09 | Oldham | Northampton | League One | 5-1 |
| 2017-02-28 | Northampton | Oldham | League One | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Northampton vs Oldham odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.7%, draw 29.9%, away 35.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.66 | 3.08 | 2.59 |
| Betano | 2.70 | 3.10 | 2.65 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.40 | 2.63 |
| Marathonbet | 2.59 | 3.12 | 2.64 |
| Pinnacle | 2.73 | 3.15 | 2.64 |
| William Hill | 2.70 | 2.90 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .