Grimsby
vs
Shrewsbury
1 – 2 Full time
| 19′ | George Lloyd | ||
| 26′ | Kevin Berkoe | ||
| 50′ | Isaac Fletcher | ||
| 56′ | Kian McMahon-Brown | ||
| 58′ | Cian Doyle | ||
| 60′ | Kian McMahon-Brown | ||
| 61′ | Charles VernamIwan Morgan | ||
| 61′ | Cian DoyleFinn Cartwright | ||
| 74′ | Josh Ruffels | ||
| 75′ | Finn Cartwright | ||
| 75′ | George Lloyd | ||
| 80′ | Isaac FletcherJosh Davison | ||
| 80′ | J. Turner-Cookwill gray | ||
| 90′ | Jamie WalkerRyley Reynolds | ||
| 90′ | Andy CookSonny Finch | ||
| 90′ | Josh Davison |
Match stats
| 21 | Shots | 9 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 64 | Possession % | 36 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 25 |
| 2 | Offsides | 0 |
| 2 | Saves | 3 |
| 266 | Accurate passes | 109 |
Grimsby vs Shrewsbury overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Grimsby vs Shrewsbury
| Probability | Grimsby | Draw | Shrewsbury |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.4% | 22.5% | 14.1% |
| Market | 55.9% | 24.2% | 19.9% |
| Final | 57.8% | 23.8% | 18.4% |
| Edge | +7.5% | -1.7% | -5.7% |
Why Grimsby
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 0.85.
- The market prices Grimsby below the model: +7.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Grimsby and Shrewsbury expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.87
Grimsby and Shrewsbury attack and defence ratings
Grimsby
Shrewsbury
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Grimsby vs Shrewsbury: result vs prediction
Grimsby 1 – 2 Shrewsbury
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Grimsby vs Shrewsbury markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Grimsby | 57.8% | 1.73 | +7.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.7% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.6% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Grimsby win | 39.8% | 2.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Grimsby | 57.8% |
| Draw | 23.8% | |
| Shrewsbury | 18.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.8% |
| No | 49.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Grimsby win | 39.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.6% | |
| Loss | 36.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.5% |
| 1-1 | 10.8% | |
| 1-0 | 10.4% |
Grimsby vs Shrewsbury stats
Grimsby and Shrewsbury recent form
| Grimsby |
LWWDDD |
| Shrewsbury |
DDWLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Grimsby and Shrewsbury going into this match
Grimsby record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Shrewsbury record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Grimsby vs Shrewsbury head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-29 | Grimsby | Shrewsbury | League Two | 1-0 |
| 2025-12-09 | Shrewsbury | Grimsby | League Two | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-12 | Grimsby | Shrewsbury | League Cup | 3-1 |
| 2015-12-15 | Shrewsbury | Grimsby | FA Cup | 1-0 |
| 2015-12-07 | Grimsby | Shrewsbury | FA Cup | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Grimsby vs Shrewsbury odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.9%, draw 24.2%, away 19.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.67 | 4.24 | 4.72 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.80 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 3.80 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.70 | 3.85 | 4.60 |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.63 | 3.85 | 4.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.68 | 4.00 | 4.82 |
| SBO | 1.63 | 3.42 | 4.10 |
| William Hill | 1.65 | 3.80 | 4.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .