Port Vale
vs
Grimsby
Garuda Lions Prediction: Grimsby
0 – 1 Predicted score · 15% model probability
Port Vale vs Grimsby overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Port Vale vs Grimsby
| Probability | Port Vale | Draw | Grimsby |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20.2% | 30.4% | 49.4% |
| Market | 36.8% | 28.8% | 34.4% |
| Final | 32.6% | 29.2% | 38.2% |
| Edge | -16.6% | +1.5% | +15.0% |
Why Grimsby
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 0.78.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Grimsby below the model: +15.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.75, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Port Vale vs Grimsby match preview
Port Vale will host Grimsby in a League Two clash on October 10, 2026. The model indicates a 20% chance of a Port Vale victory, while Grimsby holds a 49% probability of winning, with a 30% likelihood of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which has a 15% probability. Expected goals suggest Port Vale will score 0.78, compared to Grimsby's 1.37.
In terms of recent form, Port Vale has recorded a sequence of results with two wins, three losses, and a draw in their last six matches. Grimsby, on the other hand, has seen two wins, three draws, and a loss in their recent outings. The probabilities for over 2.5 goals stand at 36%, while both teams to score is at 42%. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Port Vale and Grimsby expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.15
Port Vale and Grimsby attack and defence ratings
Port Vale
Grimsby
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Port Vale vs Grimsby markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Grimsby | 38.2% | 2.62 | +15.0% | 2.75 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 63.6% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.8% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Port Vale | 32.6% |
| Draw | 29.2% | |
| Grimsby | 38.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 63.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.8% |
| No | 58.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Grimsby win | 24.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.9% | |
| Loss | 50.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 14.7% |
| 1-1 | 13.7% | |
| 0-0 | 12.9% |
Port Vale vs Grimsby stats
Port Vale and Grimsby recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Port Vale and Grimsby season so far
Port Vale record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Grimsby record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
Port Vale vs Grimsby head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-21 | Port Vale | Grimsby | League Two | 2-2 |
| 2024-12-29 | Grimsby | Port Vale | League Two | 3-0 |
| 2023-07-21 | Port Vale | Grimsby | Friendlies Clubs | 1-1 |
| 2021-05-01 | Grimsby | Port Vale | League Two | 1-0 |
| 2021-01-09 | Port Vale | Grimsby | League Two | 3-0 |
| 2019-08-24 | Grimsby | Port Vale | League Two | 5-2 |
| 2018-12-26 | Port Vale | Grimsby | League Two | 0-1 |
| 2018-10-06 | Grimsby | Port Vale | League Two | 2-0 |
| 2018-03-10 | Grimsby | Port Vale | League Two | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Port Vale vs Grimsby odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.8%, draw 28.8%, away 34.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.47 | 3.20 | 2.72 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.25 | 2.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.60 | 3.20 | 2.67 |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| Dafabet | 2.55 | 3.40 | 2.75 |
| Marathonbet | 2.47 | 3.20 | 2.72 |
| Pinnacle | 2.58 | 3.30 | 2.71 |
| SBO | 2.32 | 2.96 | 2.49 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.20 | 2.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .