Crawley Town
vs
Chesterfield
Garuda Lions Prediction: Chesterfield
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Crawley Town vs Chesterfield overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Crawley Town vs Chesterfield
| Probability | Crawley Town | Draw | Chesterfield |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.3% | 26.4% | 51.4% |
| Market | 19.9% | 22.5% | 57.6% |
| Final | 20.5% | 23.5% | 56.1% |
| Edge | +2.4% | +3.9% | -6.3% |
Why Chesterfield
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 1.05.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.68, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Crawley Town vs Chesterfield match preview
Crawley Town faces Chesterfield in a League Two matchup on October 10, 2026. The model gives Crawley Town a 22% chance of winning, while Chesterfield is favored at 51%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring with a 10% probability. Crawley Town's expected goals stand at 1.05, compared to Chesterfield's 1.70, indicating a potential struggle for the home side to find the net.
In terms of recent form, Crawley Town has recorded three losses, one draw, and one win in their last five matches, while Chesterfield has fared better with three wins, one draw, and one loss. The head-to-head record shows no wins for either side in their last two encounters, with two draws noted. The model suggests a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Crawley Town and Chesterfield expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.75
Crawley Town and Chesterfield attack and defence ratings
Crawley Town
Chesterfield
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Crawley Town vs Chesterfield markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chesterfield | 56.1% | 1.78 | -6.3% | 1.68 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.2% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 79.5% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.6% | 2.06 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Crawley Town | 20.5% |
| Draw | 23.5% | |
| Chesterfield | 56.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.2% |
| No | 45.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 43.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 79.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Chesterfield win | 28.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.8% | |
| Loss | 48.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 0-1 | 9.7% | |
| 1-2 | 9.7% |
Crawley Town vs Chesterfield stats
Crawley Town and Chesterfield recent form
| Crawley Town |
LLLDLW |
| Chesterfield |
WLWWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Crawley Town and Chesterfield season so far
Crawley Town record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Chesterfield record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
Crawley Town vs Chesterfield head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Crawley Town | Chesterfield | League Two | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-30 | Chesterfield | Crawley Town | League Two | 2-2 |
| 2018-02-03 | Chesterfield | Crawley Town | League Two | 1-2 |
| 2017-10-17 | Crawley Town | Chesterfield | League Two | 0-2 |
| 2015-01-27 | Chesterfield | Crawley Town | League One | 3-0 |
| 2014-11-29 | Crawley Town | Chesterfield | League One | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Crawley Town vs Chesterfield odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 19.9%, draw 22.5%, away 57.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.53 | 4.15 | 1.62 |
| Bet365 | 4.75 | 3.90 | 1.65 |
| BetVictor | 5.00 | 4.20 | 1.60 |
| Betano | 4.70 | 4.00 | 1.65 |
| Betfair | 4.75 | 4.33 | 1.62 |
| Dafabet | 4.70 | 4.20 | 1.68 |
| Marathonbet | 4.55 | 4.15 | 1.60 |
| Pinnacle | 4.76 | 4.29 | 1.60 |
| SBO | 3.96 | 3.56 | 1.58 |
| William Hill | 4.40 | 3.90 | 1.67 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .