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League Two · Full time ·Matchday 10

Swindon Town vs Crewe

0 – 1 Full time

14′Ollie Clarke
59′Joe WhiteMatúš Holíček
59′Joel TabinerConor Thomas
59′Adrien thibautCalum·Agius
60′Jordan Gibson
63′Tom NicholsJoe Snowdon
64′antwoine hackfordLouis Millard
64′Anthony MundaMatthew Virtue-Thick
64′Matúš Holíček
73′Ollie ClarkeDaniel Butterworth
83′Jordan GibsonCharlie McNeill
90′Connor Ripley

County Ground, Swindon

Swindon Town 33%
Draw 28%
Crewe 39%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

12 Shots 11
1 Shots on target 4
57 Possession % 43
6 Corners 2
9 Fouls 8
0 Offsides 3
3 Saves 1
270 Accurate passes 181

Swindon Town vs Crewe overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Swindon Town vs Crewe

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySwindon TownDrawCrewe
Model25.7%28.5%45.9%
Market35.8%27.4%36.8%
Final33.2%27.7%39.1%
Edge-2.5%+0.3%+2.3%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Crewe

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 1.06.
  • The market prices Crewe below our published probability: +2.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Swindon Town ↓ / Crewe → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 10% 9% 1 7% 14% 9% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 73%
3+ goals 47%
No goals 9%

Swindon Town and Crewe expected goals

Swindon Town 1.06
Crewe 1.49

Total expected goals: 2.54

Swindon Town and Crewe attack and defence ratings

Swindon Town

Attack 0.82 -18%
Defence 1.25 +25%

Crewe

Attack 1.02 +2%
Defence 0.92 -8%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Swindon Town vs Crewe: result vs prediction

Swindon Town 0 – 1 Crewe

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

League Two

Before and after this match

Swindon Town vs Crewe markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Crewe 39.1% 2.56 +2.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 53.3% 1.87 — —
Both teams to score Yes 51.7% 1.94 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.3% 1.38 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 54.1% 1.85 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Swindon Town33.2%
Draw27.7%
Crewe39.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.546.7%
Under 2.553.3%
Both teams to scoreYes51.7%
No48.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)60.9%
12 (either side)72.3%
X2 (draw or away)66.8%
Handicap -1Crewe win23.5%
Push (exactly one goal)22.4%
Loss54.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.6%
0-110.5%
1-29.2%

Swindon Town vs Crewe stats

Swindon Town and Crewe recent form

newest first
Swindon Town LDLLWW
Crewe WDDDDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Swindon Town and Crewe going into this match

league record before kick-off

Swindon Town record

  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Crewe record

  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.

Swindon Town vs Crewe head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Swindon Town wins 3Draws 4Crewe wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-21Swindon TownCreweLeague Two1-2
2025-08-30CreweSwindon TownLeague Two0-3
2025-01-11Swindon TownCreweLeague Two0-0
2024-08-24CreweSwindon TownLeague Two0-0
2024-01-13CreweSwindon TownLeague Two2-1
2023-08-12Swindon TownCreweLeague Two2-2
2023-04-29CreweSwindon TownLeague Two2-1
2022-11-19Swindon TownCreweLeague Two0-1
2021-11-06CreweSwindon TownFA Cup0-3
2021-02-20Swindon TownCreweLeague One2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Swindon Town vs Crewe odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 35.8%, draw 27.4%, away 36.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.57 3.38 2.49
Bet365 2.60 3.40 2.50
BetVictor 2.60 3.50 2.55
Betano 2.62 3.35 2.55
Betfair 2.60 3.60 2.55
Dafabet 2.60 3.55 2.60
Marathonbet 2.57 3.38 2.49
Pinnacle 2.68 3.53 2.56
SBO 2.44 3.10 2.39
William Hill 2.60 3.25 2.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.60 ▲ +0.06
X 3.39 ▼ -0.03
2 2.52 ▼ -0.06

13 snapshots recorded, from .