Swindon Town
vs
Crewe
Garuda Lions Prediction: Crewe
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Swindon Town vs Crewe overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Swindon Town vs Crewe
| Probability | Swindon Town | Draw | Crewe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.7% | 28.5% | 45.9% |
| Market | 36.0% | 27.3% | 36.7% |
| Final | 33.4% | 27.6% | 39.0% |
| Edge | -10.4% | +1.2% | +9.2% |
Why Crewe
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 1.06.
- The market prices Crewe below the model: +9.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.60, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Swindon Town vs Crewe match preview
Swindon Town faces Crewe in a League Two clash, with model probabilities indicating a 26% chance of a Swindon victory, a 28% likelihood of a draw, and a 46% chance for Crewe to win. The expected goals suggest Swindon Town may score 1.06, while Crewe is projected to net 1.49, pointing towards a competitive match. The most likely scoreline is 0-1 in favor of Crewe, occurring with a 10% probability.
In terms of recent form, Swindon Town has recorded one win in their last six matches, while Crewe remains unbeaten in their last six, with five draws and one win. Historically, the last two encounters between these teams have seen each side secure one victory, indicating a balanced rivalry. The probabilities suggest a close contest, with a 52% chance for both teams to score and a 47% likelihood of over 2.5 goals.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Swindon Town and Crewe expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.54
Swindon Town and Crewe attack and defence ratings
Swindon Town
Crewe
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Swindon Town vs Crewe markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Crewe | 39.0% | 2.57 | +9.2% | 2.60 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.3% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.7% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Swindon Town | 33.4% |
| Draw | 27.6% | |
| Crewe | 39.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.7% |
| No | 48.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Crewe win | 23.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 54.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 0-1 | 10.5% | |
| 1-2 | 9.2% |
Swindon Town vs Crewe stats
Swindon Town and Crewe recent form
| Swindon Town |
LDLLWW |
| Crewe |
WDDDDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Swindon Town and Crewe season so far
Swindon Town record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Crewe record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
Swindon Town vs Crewe head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Swindon Town | Crewe | League Two | 1-2 |
| 2025-08-30 | Crewe | Swindon Town | League Two | 0-3 |
| 2025-01-11 | Swindon Town | Crewe | League Two | 0-0 |
| 2024-08-24 | Crewe | Swindon Town | League Two | 0-0 |
| 2024-01-13 | Crewe | Swindon Town | League Two | 2-1 |
| 2023-08-12 | Swindon Town | Crewe | League Two | 2-2 |
| 2023-04-29 | Crewe | Swindon Town | League Two | 2-1 |
| 2022-11-19 | Swindon Town | Crewe | League Two | 0-1 |
| 2021-11-06 | Crewe | Swindon Town | FA Cup | 0-3 |
| 2021-02-20 | Swindon Town | Crewe | League One | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Swindon Town vs Crewe odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.0%, draw 27.3%, away 36.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.57 | 3.38 | 2.49 |
| Bet365 | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.50 | 2.60 |
| Betano | 2.62 | 3.35 | 2.55 |
| Betfair | 2.55 | 3.70 | 2.55 |
| Dafabet | 2.60 | 3.55 | 2.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.57 | 3.38 | 2.49 |
| Pinnacle | 2.58 | 3.46 | 2.60 |
| SBO | 2.32 | 3.04 | 2.42 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .