League Two
·
Full time
·Matchday 11
Swindon Town
vs
Walsall
1 – 1 Full time
| 5′ | Aaron Drinan | ||
| 45′ | Ryan LeakElicha Ahui | ||
| 55′ | Taione Richard Evumena Sodje | ||
| 59′ | L. Grant | ||
| 61′ | antwoine hackfordLouis Millard | ||
| 61′ | Joseph HungboMatthew Virtue-Thick | ||
| 62′ | Ollie ClarkeJoe Snowdon | ||
| 69′ | Isaac MooreCharlie Crew | ||
| 76′ | Anthony MundaJaylan Pearman | ||
| 77′ | James Ball | ||
| 80′ | James BallKaelan Majekodunmi | ||
| 81′ | Courtney Alphonso ClarkeLewis Simper | ||
| 81′ | Mason·HancockJames Furlong | ||
| 85′ | Taione Richard Evumena SodjeAndrew Dallas |
Swindon Town
31%
Draw
28%
Walsall
41%
Match stats
| 17 | Shots | 18 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 8 |
| 38 | Possession % | 62 |
| 2 | Corners | 10 |
| 5 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Offsides | 4 |
| 7 | Saves | 4 |
| 179 | Accurate passes | 345 |
Swindon Town vs Walsall overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Swindon Town vs Walsall
| Probability | Swindon Town | Draw | Walsall |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21.1% | 31.6% | 47.3% |
| Market | 34.5% | 26.6% | 38.9% |
| Final | 31.2% | 27.8% | 41.0% |
| Edge | -13.4% | +4.9% | +8.5% |
Why Walsall
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.28 vs 0.77.
- The market prices Walsall below the model: +8.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
86%
2+ goals
62%
3+ goals
34%
No goals
14%
Swindon Town and Walsall expected goals
Swindon Town
0.77
Walsall
1.28
Total expected goals: 2.05
Swindon Town and Walsall attack and defence ratings
Swindon Town
Attack
0.73 -27%
Defence
1.21 +21%
Walsall
Attack
0.91 -9%
Defence
0.75 -25%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Swindon Town vs Walsall: result vs prediction
Swindon Town 1 – 1 Walsall
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Swindon Town vs Walsall markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Walsall | 41.0% | 2.44 | +8.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 66.3% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.2% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Swindon Town | 31.2% |
| Draw | 27.8% | |
| Walsall | 41.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 66.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.1% |
| No | 59.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Walsall win | 22.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.8% | |
| Loss | 52.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 15.2% |
| 0-0 | 14.1% | |
| 1-1 | 13.9% |
Swindon Town vs Walsall stats
Swindon Town and Walsall recent form
| Swindon Town |
LLDLLW |
| Walsall |
DDWDDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Swindon Town and Walsall going into this match
Swindon Town record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 10 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Walsall record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Swindon Town vs Walsall head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
4Swindon Town wins
1Draws
5Walsall wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Swindon Town | Walsall | League Two | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-02 | Walsall | Swindon Town | League Two | 2-1 |
| 2025-03-01 | Walsall | Swindon Town | League Two | 0-1 |
| 2024-08-17 | Swindon Town | Walsall | League Two | 0-4 |
| 2024-04-16 | Walsall | Swindon Town | League Two | 2-1 |
| 2023-09-16 | Swindon Town | Walsall | League Two | 2-0 |
| 2023-03-14 | Walsall | Swindon Town | League Two | 0-0 |
| 2022-12-26 | Swindon Town | Walsall | League Two | 1-2 |
| 2022-08-09 | Walsall | Swindon Town | League Cup | 2-0 |
| 2022-05-07 | Walsall | Swindon Town | League Two | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Swindon Town vs Walsall odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.8%, draw 26.7%, away 38.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.68 | 3.48 | 2.35 |
| Bet365 | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.45 |
| BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| Betano | 2.67 | 3.45 | 2.45 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.70 | 2.45 |
| Dafabet | 2.65 | 3.60 | 2.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.68 | 3.48 | 2.35 |
| Pinnacle | 2.74 | 3.65 | 2.44 |
| SBO | 2.45 | 3.12 | 2.26 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.40 | 2.38 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.69 ▲ +0.07
X
3.49 ▼ -0.07
2
2.39 ▼ -0.04
13 snapshots recorded, from .