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League Two · Full time ·Matchday 11

Shrewsbury vs Bristol Rovers

1 – 0 Full time

10′Shaqai Forde
16′Josh Ruffels
34′Steve Evans
43′George Lloyd
58′Richard SmallwoodJoe Quigley
58′Bobby KamwaArvin Appiah
64′Keenan Gough
68′Clinton MolaReiss-Alexander Russell-Denny
73′Ciaran KellyJack Sparkes
77′George Lloyd
80′J. Turner-Cook
84′Josh DavisonIsaac Fletcher
84′Kian McMahon-Brownwill gray
88′Ben Purrington
90′Isaac Fletcher

New Meadow, Shrewsbury

Shrewsbury 31%
Draw 29%
Bristol Rovers 40%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

10 Shots 8
3 Shots on target 1
45 Possession % 55
6 Corners 3
15 Fouls 15
1 Offsides 4
1 Saves 2
169 Accurate passes 228

Shrewsbury vs Bristol Rovers overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Shrewsbury vs Bristol Rovers

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityShrewsburyDrawBristol Rovers
Model34.0%28.5%37.5%
Market29.9%29.1%41.0%
Final30.9%28.9%40.2%
Edge+4.1%-0.6%-3.5%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Shrewsbury ↓ / Bristol Rovers → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 8% 1 8% 14% 8% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 76%
3+ goals 50%
No goals 8%

Shrewsbury and Bristol Rovers expected goals

Shrewsbury 1.29
Bristol Rovers 1.37

Total expected goals: 2.66

Shrewsbury and Bristol Rovers attack and defence ratings

Shrewsbury

Attack 0.78 -22%
Defence 1.11 +11%

Bristol Rovers

Attack 1.05 +5%
Defence 1.19 +19%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Shrewsbury vs Bristol Rovers: result vs prediction

Shrewsbury 1 – 0 Bristol Rovers

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

League Two

Before and after this match

Shrewsbury vs Bristol Rovers markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Bristol Rovers 40.2% 2.49 -3.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 50.3% 1.99 — —
Both teams to score Yes 55.4% 1.81 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.1% 1.41 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 62.5% 1.60 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Shrewsbury30.9%
Draw28.9%
Bristol Rovers40.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549.7%
Under 2.550.3%
Both teams to scoreYes55.4%
No44.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)59.8%
12 (either side)71.1%
X2 (draw or away)69.1%
Handicap -1Bristol Rovers win17.9%
Push (exactly one goal)19.7%
Loss62.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.6%
1-28.5%
0-18.3%

Shrewsbury vs Bristol Rovers stats

Shrewsbury and Bristol Rovers recent form

newest first
Shrewsbury LWDDWL
Bristol Rovers LLWLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Shrewsbury and Bristol Rovers going into this match

league record before kick-off

Shrewsbury record

  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.

Bristol Rovers record

  • They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

Shrewsbury vs Bristol Rovers head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Shrewsbury wins 3Draws 6Bristol Rovers wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-17Bristol RoversShrewsburyLeague Two1-0
2026-01-01ShrewsburyBristol RoversLeague Two0-3
2025-03-04ShrewsburyBristol RoversLeague One0-0
2024-10-22Bristol RoversShrewsburyLeague One1-0
2024-04-01Bristol RoversShrewsburyLeague One0-0
2023-09-16ShrewsburyBristol RoversLeague One0-2
2023-05-02ShrewsburyBristol RoversLeague One2-1
2022-08-27Bristol RoversShrewsburyLeague One1-1
2021-02-27Bristol RoversShrewsburyLeague One2-1
2020-10-20ShrewsburyBristol RoversLeague One0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Shrewsbury vs Bristol Rovers odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 30.0%, draw 28.9%, away 41.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.10 3.18 2.26
Bet365 3.10 3.25 2.25
BetVictor 3.10 3.25 2.30
Betano 3.10 3.30 2.27
Betfair 3.10 3.40 2.30
Dafabet 3.20 3.40 2.27
Marathonbet 3.08 3.18 2.24
Pinnacle 3.22 3.16 2.38
SBO 2.78 2.94 2.12
William Hill 3.00 3.10 2.25

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.10 ▲ +0.10
X 3.18 ▼ -0.10
2 2.25 —

13 snapshots recorded, from .