League Two
·
Full time
·Matchday 12
Bristol Rovers
vs
Salford City
1 – 2 Full time
| 6′ | Brendan Sarpeng-Wiredu | ||
| 20′ | Daniel Udoh | ||
| 29′ | Elliot Bonds | ||
| 37′ | Kofi Balmer | ||
| 38′ | Ciaran Kelly | ||
| 41′ | Shaqai Forde | ||
| 45′ | Ryan Graydon | ||
| 48′ | Luke Garbutt | ||
| 57′ | Jack Sparkes | ||
| 67′ | Elliot BondsMatt·Butcher | ||
| 67′ | Daniel UdohMacaulay Langstaff | ||
| 67′ | Luke GarbuttWill Aimson | ||
| 67′ | Ryan GraydonJorge Grant | ||
| 69′ | Fabrizio CavegnReiss-Alexander Russell-Denny | ||
| 81′ | Jack SparkesArvin Appiah | ||
| 81′ | Ellis HarrisonJoe Quigley | ||
| 81′ | Shaqai FordeBobby Kamwa | ||
| 83′ | Luke MolyneuxNathan Asiimwe | ||
| 90′ | Keenan Gough |
Bristol Rovers
33%
Draw
28%
Salford City
40%
Match stats
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 49 | Possession % | 51 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 3 | Saves | 5 |
| 218 | Accurate passes | 243 |
Bristol Rovers vs Salford City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bristol Rovers vs Salford City
| Probability | Bristol Rovers | Draw | Salford City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.5% | 26.9% | 49.6% |
| Market | 35.7% | 28.0% | 36.3% |
| Final | 32.7% | 27.7% | 39.6% |
| Edge | -3.1% | -0.3% | +3.3% |
Why Salford City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 1.06.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Salford City below our published probability: +3.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
92%
2+ goals
76%
3+ goals
51%
No goals
8%
Bristol Rovers and Salford City expected goals
Bristol Rovers
1.06
Salford City
1.64
Total expected goals: 2.70
Bristol Rovers and Salford City attack and defence ratings
Bristol Rovers
Attack
0.93 -7%
Defence
1.16 +16%
Salford City
Attack
1.22 +22%
Defence
0.82 -18%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Bristol Rovers vs Salford City: result vs prediction
Bristol Rovers 1 – 2 Salford City
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Bristol Rovers vs Salford City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Salford City | 39.6% | 2.52 | +3.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.9% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.3% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bristol Rovers | 32.7% |
| Draw | 27.7% | |
| Salford City | 39.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.9% |
| No | 46.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Salford City win | 27.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 50.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 0-1 | 9.8% | |
| 1-2 | 9.6% |
Bristol Rovers vs Salford City stats
Bristol Rovers and Salford City recent form
| Bristol Rovers |
LLLWLL |
| Salford City |
WWWWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bristol Rovers and Salford City going into this match
Bristol Rovers record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Salford City record
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
Bristol Rovers vs Salford City head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
2Bristol Rovers wins
1Draws
1Salford City wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Salford City | Bristol Rovers | League Two | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Bristol Rovers | Salford City | League Two | 2-1 |
| 2022-04-15 | Bristol Rovers | Salford City | League Two | 1-0 |
| 2021-11-23 | Salford City | Bristol Rovers | League Two | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Bristol Rovers vs Salford City odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.7%, draw 28.0%, away 36.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.56 | 3.28 | 2.56 |
| Bet365 | 2.62 | 3.20 | 2.62 |
| BetVictor | 2.60 | 3.50 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.55 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.60 | 2.55 |
| Dafabet | 2.65 | 3.45 | 2.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.56 | 3.28 | 2.56 |
| Pinnacle | 2.69 | 3.36 | 2.64 |
| SBO | 2.51 | 3.15 | 2.41 |
| William Hill | 2.60 | 3.25 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.60 ▲ +0.21
X
3.32 ▼ -0.13
2
2.55 ▼ -0.17
10 snapshots recorded, from .