Bristol Rovers
vs
Salford City
Garuda Lions Prediction: Salford City
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Bristol Rovers vs Salford City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bristol Rovers vs Salford City
| Probability | Bristol Rovers | Draw | Salford City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.5% | 26.9% | 49.6% |
| Market | 38.7% | 27.1% | 34.2% |
| Final | 34.9% | 27.0% | 38.0% |
| Edge | -15.2% | -0.1% | +15.4% |
Why Salford City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 1.06.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Salford City below the model: +15.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.80, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Bristol Rovers vs Salford City match preview
Bristol Rovers face Salford City in a League Two clash, with the model assigning a 27% probability of a home win for Rovers, a 27% chance of a draw, and a 46% likelihood of an away victory for Salford. The expected goals for Bristol Rovers stand at 1.18, while Salford City is projected to score 1.61. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring with a 9% probability.
Recent form shows Bristol Rovers struggling with two consecutive losses, while Salford City is in strong shape, having won four of their last five matches. The model indicates a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% probability that both teams will score. In their last two encounters, both teams have one win each.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bristol Rovers and Salford City expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.70
Bristol Rovers and Salford City attack and defence ratings
Bristol Rovers
Salford City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Bristol Rovers vs Salford City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Salford City | 38.0% | 2.63 | +15.4% | 2.80 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.9% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.0% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bristol Rovers | 34.9% |
| Draw | 27.0% | |
| Salford City | 38.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.9% |
| No | 46.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Salford City win | 27.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 50.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 0-1 | 9.8% | |
| 1-2 | 9.6% |
Bristol Rovers vs Salford City stats
Bristol Rovers and Salford City recent form
| Bristol Rovers |
LLLWLL |
| Salford City |
WWWWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bristol Rovers and Salford City season so far
Bristol Rovers record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Salford City record
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
Bristol Rovers vs Salford City head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Salford City | Bristol Rovers | League Two | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Bristol Rovers | Salford City | League Two | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Bristol Rovers vs Salford City odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.9%, draw 27.0%, away 34.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.34 | 3.35 | 2.65 |
| Dafabet | 2.44 | 3.55 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .