Exeter City
vs
Crewe
Garuda Lions Prediction: Exeter City
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
Exeter City vs Crewe overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Exeter City vs Crewe
| Probability | Exeter City | Draw | Crewe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.2% | 38.8% | 34.0% |
| Market | 37.9% | 27.9% | 34.2% |
| Final | 35.2% | 30.6% | 34.1% |
| Edge | -10.7% | +10.9% | -0.2% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.49, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Exeter City vs Crewe match preview
Exeter City faces Crewe in a League Two matchup with both teams showing mixed recent form. Exeter City has recorded two wins, one loss, two draws, while Crewe has achieved two wins and four draws in their last six matches. According to our model, Exeter City has a 36% chance of winning, while Crewe stands at 34%, with a 30% probability for a draw. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Exeter City, occurring with a 14% probability.
In terms of expected goals, Exeter City is projected to score 0.74, while Crewe is slightly higher at 0.81. The model suggests a 21% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 30% chance that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Exeter City and Crewe expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.52
Exeter City and Crewe attack and defence ratings
Exeter City
Crewe
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Exeter City vs Crewe markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Exeter City | 35.2% | 2.84 | -10.7% | 2.49 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 80.3% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 70.5% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.4% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Exeter City | 35.2% |
| Draw | 30.6% | |
| Crewe | 34.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 19.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 80.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 29.5% |
| No | 70.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Exeter City win | 8.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.9% | |
| Loss | 72.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 23.0% |
| 0-1 | 16.6% | |
| 1-0 | 14.1% |
Exeter City vs Crewe stats
Exeter City and Crewe recent form
| Exeter City |
DWWLDL |
| Crewe |
WWWDDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Exeter City and Crewe season so far
Exeter City record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
Crewe record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
Exeter City vs Crewe head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Exeter City vs Crewe odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.1%, draw 27.8%, away 34.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.39 | 3.25 | 2.65 |
| Dafabet | 2.49 | 3.45 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .