Rotherham
vs
Newport County
Garuda Lions Prediction: Newport County
0 – 1 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Rotherham vs Newport County overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Rotherham vs Newport County
| Probability | Rotherham | Draw | Newport County |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.9% | 29.2% | 46.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 23.9% | 29.2% | 46.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Newport County
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.44 vs 0.96.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Rotherham vs Newport County match preview
Rotherham faces Newport County in a League Two clash, with probabilities indicating a competitive match. Rotherham has a 27% chance of winning, while Newport County leads with a 44% likelihood of securing victory. The model suggests a draw is also a possibility at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1 in favor of Newport County, occurring at a rate of 10%.
In terms of expected goals, Rotherham is projected to score 1.07, while Newport County is forecasted to net 1.44. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 46%, and both teams scoring stands at 51%. Recent form shows Rotherham with two losses and a win in their last five matches, while Newport County has two wins and three draws in the same timeframe.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Rotherham and Newport County expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.40
Rotherham and Newport County attack and defence ratings
Rotherham
Newport County
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Rotherham vs Newport County markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Newport County | 46.9% | 2.13 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.0% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.7% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 76.1% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rotherham | 23.9% |
| Draw | 29.2% | |
| Newport County | 46.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.3% |
| No | 51.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 76.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Newport County win | 23.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 53.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 0-1 | 11.8% | |
| 0-0 | 10.4% |
Rotherham vs Newport County stats
Rotherham and Newport County recent form
| Rotherham |
LLLDWD |
| Newport County |
DWDWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Rotherham and Newport County season so far
Rotherham record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Newport County record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 65% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.