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League Two · Full time ·Matchday 12

Rotherham vs Newport County

2 – 2 Full time

4′Paul Mullin
12′Aaron Nemane
16′Jamie Jellis
28′Harrison Biggins
42′Paul Mullin
42′Gerard Garner
45′Alfie MerrittMatthew Smith
54′Gerard Garner
60′Gerard GarnerKion Etete
60′Michael Adu-PokuYahya Bamba
64′Jili BuyabuK. Lolas
73′Denzel HallKieran Ngwenya
85′kian spenceTom Bradshaw
89′H. Douglas

New York Stadium, RotherhamReferee: J. Callum

Rotherham 39%
Draw 28%
Newport County 33%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

12 Shots 12
5 Shots on target 4
62 Possession % 38
2 Corners 2
18 Fouls 16
2 Offsides 1
2 Saves 3
284 Accurate passes 140

Rotherham vs Newport County overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Rotherham vs Newport County

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityRotherhamDrawNewport County
Model23.9%29.2%46.9%
Market43.4%27.7%28.8%
Final38.6%28.1%33.3%
Edge-4.9%+0.4%+4.5%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Rotherham ↓ / Newport County → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 12% 9% 1 7% 14% 9% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 70%
3+ goals 43%
No goals 10%

Rotherham and Newport County expected goals

Rotherham 0.96
Newport County 1.44

Total expected goals: 2.40

Rotherham and Newport County attack and defence ratings

Rotherham

Attack 0.82 -18%
Defence 1.34 +34%

Newport County

Attack 0.92 -8%
Defence 0.84 -16%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Rotherham vs Newport County: result vs prediction

Rotherham 2 – 2 Newport County

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

League Two

Before and after this match

Rotherham vs Newport County markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Rotherham 38.6% 2.59 -4.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 57.0% 1.75 — —
Both teams to score No 51.7% 1.93 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.9% 1.39 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 76.1% 1.31 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Rotherham38.6%
Draw28.1%
Newport County33.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.543.0%
Under 2.557.0%
Both teams to scoreYes48.3%
No51.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)66.7%
12 (either side)71.9%
X2 (draw or away)61.4%
Handicap -1Rotherham win8.8%
Push (exactly one goal)15.0%
Loss76.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.8%
0-111.8%
0-010.4%

Rotherham vs Newport County stats

Rotherham and Newport County recent form

newest first
Rotherham LLLDWD
Newport County DWDWDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Rotherham and Newport County going into this match

league record before kick-off

Rotherham record

  • They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).

Newport County record

  • They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
  • 65% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Rotherham vs Newport County head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Rotherham vs Newport County odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 43.4%, draw 27.7%, away 28.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.11 3.30 3.32
Bet365 2.15 3.40 3.25
BetVictor 2.15 3.40 3.25
Betano 2.22 3.35 3.15
Betfair 2.20 3.40 3.25
Dafabet 2.24 3.40 3.25
Marathonbet 2.09 3.30 3.30
Pinnacle 2.18 3.43 3.35
SBO 2.16 3.05 2.93
William Hill 2.15 3.10 3.20

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.16 ▲ +0.12
X 3.38 ▲ +0.04
2 3.25 ▼ -0.16

6 snapshots recorded, from .