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League Two · Full time ·Matchday 11

Newport County vs York

1 – 1 Full time

4′Ollie Pearce
17′M. Dibley-Dias
24′jovan malcolm
45′Matty JacobsMatthew Smith
47′Ollie Pearce
52′M. Dibley-DiasKion Etete
53′Joey Grey
54′Kion Etete
55′Joseph Rabole FelixJack Hunt
72′Ollie PearceFrankie Maguire
72′Alex HuntArthur Read
72′Joey GreyAlex Newby
76′Tanatswa NyakuhwaGerard Garner
76′Yahya BambaKieron Thomas Evans
79′Harrison Biggins
82′Ryan FallowfieldAshley Palmer
87′Kion Etete
89′Shaquille GwengweMichael Adu-Poku

Rodney Parade, Newport

Newport County 29%
Draw 26%
York 45%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

17 Shots 11
3 Shots on target 1
52 Possession % 48
6 Corners 0
12 Fouls 10
0 Offsides 1
0 Saves 2
351 Accurate passes 309

Newport County vs York overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Newport County vs York

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityNewport CountyDrawYork
Model37.5%28.7%33.8%
Market25.8%25.5%48.7%
Final28.7%26.3%44.9%
Edge+11.7%+3.2%-14.9%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Newport County ↓ / York → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 8% 1 9% 14% 8% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 75%
3+ goals 49%
No goals 8%

Newport County and York expected goals

Newport County 1.36
York 1.27

Total expected goals: 2.63

Newport County and York attack and defence ratings

Newport County

Attack 0.95 -5%
Defence 0.84 -16%

York

Attack 1.31 +31%
Defence 1.02 +2%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Newport County vs York: result vs prediction

Newport County 1 – 1 York

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

League Two

Before and after this match

Newport County vs York markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 York 44.9% 2.22 -14.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 51.2% 1.95 — —
Both teams to score Yes 54.6% 1.83 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.7% 1.36 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 66.3% 1.51 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Newport County28.7%
Draw26.3%
York44.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.548.8%
Under 2.551.2%
Both teams to scoreYes54.6%
No45.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)55.1%
12 (either side)73.7%
X2 (draw or away)71.3%
Handicap -1York win15.2%
Push (exactly one goal)18.5%
Loss66.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.7%
1-08.6%
0-08.5%

Newport County vs York stats

Newport County and York recent form

newest first
Newport County WDWDDL
York DWLWDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Newport County and York going into this match

league record before kick-off

Newport County record

  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
  • 65% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

York record

  • They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Newport County vs York head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

5Newport County wins 1Draws 3York wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2016-01-16YorkNewport CountyLeague Two0-1
2015-09-05Newport CountyYorkLeague Two0-3
2015-04-25YorkNewport CountyLeague Two0-2
2014-10-11Newport CountyYorkLeague Two3-1
2014-04-26YorkNewport CountyLeague Two1-0
2013-10-19Newport CountyYorkLeague Two3-0
2012-05-12Newport CountyYorkFA Trophy0-2
2012-04-14YorkNewport CountyNational League1-1
2012-04-03Newport CountyYorkNational League2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Newport County vs York odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 25.5%, draw 25.6%, away 48.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.60 3.64 1.90
Bet365 3.75 3.60 1.91
BetVictor 3.70 3.70 1.93
Betano 3.85 3.65 1.87
Betfair 3.70 3.70 1.95
Dafabet 3.75 3.70 1.95
Marathonbet 3.58 3.64 1.88
Pinnacle 3.61 3.87 1.94
SBO 3.17 3.12 1.87
William Hill 3.40 3.50 1.91

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.60 —
X 3.64 —
2 1.91 —

13 snapshots recorded, from .