York
vs
Accrington ST
Garuda Lions Prediction: York
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
York vs Accrington ST overview
Garuda Lions analysis: York vs Accrington ST
| Probability | York | Draw | Accrington ST |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.9% | 25.4% | 26.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 47.9% | 25.4% | 26.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why York
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.28.
York vs Accrington ST match preview
York hosts Accrington ST in a League Two clash with York holding a 54% probability of victory according to our model. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1, occurring at a 10% likelihood. Both teams are expected to contribute to the scoreline, with a 59% chance for over 2.5 goals and a similar 59% for both teams to score.
In terms of expected goals, York is forecasted to achieve 1.91, while Accrington ST is projected at 1.16. Recent form shows York with mixed results, recording two draws, a win, and two losses in their last five matches. Accrington ST, on the other hand, has had a more stable run with three draws and two wins in their recent games. The confidence grade for this match stands at C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
York and Accrington ST expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.06
York and Accrington ST attack and defence ratings
York
Accrington ST
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
York vs Accrington ST markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | York | 47.9% | 2.09 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.0% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | York | 47.9% |
| Draw | 25.4% | |
| Accrington ST | 26.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.1% |
| No | 38.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | York win | 26.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 52.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 7.4% |
York vs Accrington ST stats
York and Accrington ST recent form
| York |
DDWLWD |
| Accrington ST |
WDWDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
York and Accrington ST season so far
York record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Accrington ST record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.