York
vs
Port Vale
Garuda Lions Prediction: York
1 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
York vs Port Vale overview
Garuda Lions analysis: York vs Port Vale
| Probability | York | Draw | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.1% | 28.2% | 15.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 56.1% | 28.2% | 15.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why York
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.52 vs 0.69.
York vs Port Vale match preview
York enters this match against Port Vale with a 56% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 28% and Port Vale at 16%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of York, with a 16% likelihood. The expected goals for York are 1.52, compared to Port Vale's 0.69, indicating a stronger attacking performance anticipated from the home side.
In terms of recent form, York has recorded two draws, a win, and two losses in their last five matches, while Port Vale has had a mixed run with three wins and two losses. The probabilities suggest both teams scoring might occur at 40%, and there is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match. The confidence grade for this forecast is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
York and Port Vale expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.20
York and Port Vale attack and defence ratings
York
Port Vale
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town — team news & stats
- Rotherham vs Shrewsbury — team news & stats
- Rochdale vs Accrington ST
- Chesterfield v Crewe — match page
- Gillingham vs Grimsby — team news & stats
- Crawley Town vs Tranmere
- Exeter City v Fleetwood Town — match page
- Barnet vs Oldham — team news & stats
Before and after this match
York vs Port Vale markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | York | 56.1% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.2% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.1% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.3% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.9% | 2.28 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | York | 56.1% |
| Draw | 28.2% | |
| Port Vale | 15.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.9% |
| No | 60.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | York win | 30.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.0% | |
| Loss | 43.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.6% |
| 2-0 | 12.7% | |
| 1-1 | 12.6% |
York vs Port Vale stats
York and Port Vale recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
York and Port Vale season so far
York record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Port Vale record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.