Bristol Rovers
vs
Swindon Town
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bristol Rovers
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town
| Probability | Bristol Rovers | Draw | Swindon Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.5% | 28.6% | 24.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 46.5% | 28.6% | 24.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Bristol Rovers
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 1.02.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town match preview
Bristol Rovers and Swindon Town face off in a League Two clash with Bristol Rovers holding a 47% probability of victory according to our model, while Swindon Town stands at 25%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0 in favor of Bristol Rovers, with an 11% chance. The expected goals for Bristol Rovers is 1.48, compared to Swindon Town's 1.02, indicating a potential edge for the home side.
Recent form shows Bristol Rovers struggling with three consecutive losses followed by a win and two more defeats, while Swindon Town has drawn twice and lost four times in their last six matches. In their last two encounters, Bristol Rovers have yet to secure a win against Swindon Town, with one draw and one loss. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bristol Rovers and Swindon Town expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.51
Bristol Rovers and Swindon Town attack and defence ratings
Bristol Rovers
Swindon Town
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bristol Rovers | 46.5% | 2.15 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.2% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.1% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bristol Rovers | 46.5% |
| Draw | 28.6% | |
| Swindon Town | 24.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.8% |
| No | 49.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bristol Rovers win | 23.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.7% | |
| Loss | 53.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 1-0 | 10.9% | |
| 0-0 | 9.4% |
Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town stats
Bristol Rovers and Swindon Town recent form
| Bristol Rovers |
LLLWLL |
| Swindon Town |
DLLDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bristol Rovers and Swindon Town season so far
Bristol Rovers record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Swindon Town record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 10 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Swindon Town | Bristol Rovers | League Two | 1-1 |
| 2025-12-13 | Bristol Rovers | Swindon Town | League Two | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.