Swindon Town
vs
Rotherham
Garuda Lions Prediction: Swindon Town
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 1.16.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Swindon Town vs Rotherham overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Swindon Town vs Rotherham
| Probability | Swindon Town | Draw | Rotherham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.1% | 26.5% | 25.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 48.1% | 26.5% | 25.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Swindon Town
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Swindon Town vs Rotherham match preview
Swindon Town hosts Rotherham in a League Two clash on October 31, 2026. According to our model, Swindon Town has a 48% probability of winning, while Rotherham stands at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Swindon, with a 10% likelihood. The expected goals for Swindon Town is 1.67 compared to Rotherham's 1.16, indicating a potential edge for the home side.
In terms of recent form, Swindon Town has recorded a series of draws and a couple of losses, with their latest results being D-W-D-L-L-D. Rotherham's form has been similarly challenging, with their last six matches yielding only two draws and four losses. Our model suggests a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% likelihood that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Swindon Town and Rotherham expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.84
Swindon Town and Rotherham attack and defence ratings
Swindon Town
Rotherham
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Swindon Town vs Rotherham markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Swindon Town | 48.1% | 2.08 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.9% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.0% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Swindon Town | 48.1% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| Rotherham | 25.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.0% |
| No | 43.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Swindon Town win | 26.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 51.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 1-0 | 8.7% |
Swindon Town vs Rotherham stats
Swindon Town and Rotherham recent form
| Swindon Town |
DWDLLD |
| Rotherham |
DDLLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Swindon Town and Rotherham season so far
Swindon Town record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 12 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rotherham record
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Swindon Town vs Rotherham head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-01 | Rotherham | Swindon Town | England FA Cup | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.