Swindon Town
vs
Rotherham
2 – 1 Full time
| 4′ | Jili Buyabu | ||
| 42′ | James BallJoseph Hungbo | ||
| 45′ | Jack Thomson | ||
| 55′ | brandon coverSonny Aljofree | ||
| 55′ | Aaron NemaneGeorge Sebine | ||
| 55′ | Joe RaffertyBrandon Williams | ||
| 60′ | Tom NicholsOllie Palmer | ||
| 72′ | Kieran Ngwenya | ||
| 75′ | Dan ButlerJoel McGregor | ||
| 76′ | Joe SnowdonJames Debayo | ||
| 76′ | Josh AusterfieldK. Lolas | ||
| 76′ | Paul MullinTom Bradshaw | ||
| 79′ | Dominic Iorfa | ||
| 80′ | A. Bruce | ||
| 81′ | Joseph Hungbo | ||
| 87′ | Denzel Hall | ||
| 90′ | Denzel Hall |
Match stats
| 15 | Shots | 3 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 74 | Possession % | 26 |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Offsides | 0 |
| 1 | Saves | 2 |
| 451 | Accurate passes | 100 |
Swindon Town vs Rotherham overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Swindon Town vs Rotherham
| Probability | Swindon Town | Draw | Rotherham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.1% | 26.5% | 25.4% |
| Market | 40.5% | 26.6% | 32.9% |
| Final | 42.4% | 26.6% | 31.0% |
| Edge | +1.9% | -0.0% | -1.9% |
Why Swindon Town
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Swindon Town and Rotherham expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.83
Swindon Town and Rotherham attack and defence ratings
Swindon Town
Rotherham
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Swindon Town vs Rotherham: result vs prediction
Swindon Town 2 – 1 Rotherham
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Swindon Town vs Rotherham markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Swindon Town | 42.4% | 2.36 | +1.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Swindon Town | 42.4% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| Rotherham | 31.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.9% |
| No | 43.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Swindon Town win | 26.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 51.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 1-0 | 8.7% |
Swindon Town vs Rotherham stats
Swindon Town and Rotherham recent form
| Swindon Town |
DWDLLD |
| Rotherham |
DDLLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Swindon Town and Rotherham going into this match
Swindon Town record
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 13 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rotherham record
- They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Swindon Town vs Rotherham head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-01 | Rotherham | Swindon Town | England FA Cup | 1-2 |
| 2014-05-03 | Swindon Town | Rotherham | League One | 1-2 |
| 2013-10-12 | Rotherham | Swindon Town | League One | 0-4 |
| 2012-01-14 | Rotherham | Swindon Town | League Two | 1-2 |
| 2011-09-03 | Swindon Town | Rotherham | League Two | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Swindon Town vs Rotherham odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.5%, draw 26.6%, away 32.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.30 | 3.45 | 2.81 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.88 |
| Betano | 2.32 | 3.50 | 2.85 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.88 |
| Dafabet | 2.35 | 3.60 | 2.90 |
| Marathonbet | 2.28 | 3.45 | 2.79 |
| Pinnacle | 2.36 | 3.59 | 2.93 |
| SBO | 2.25 | 3.12 | 2.46 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .