Shrewsbury
vs
Gillingham
Garuda Lions Prediction: Shrewsbury
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.45.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Shrewsbury vs Gillingham overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Shrewsbury vs Gillingham
| Probability | Shrewsbury | Draw | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.5% | 25.0% | 30.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 44.5% | 25.0% | 30.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Shrewsbury
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.45.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Shrewsbury vs Gillingham match preview
Shrewsbury Town faces Gillingham in a League Two clash with Shrewsbury holding a 44% probability of winning, compared to Gillingham's 31% and a 25% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Shrewsbury, with an expected goals tally of 1.78 for Shrewsbury and 1.45 for Gillingham. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals, and both teams are expected to score 65% of the time.
In terms of recent form, Shrewsbury has recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while Gillingham has struggled with one win, two draws, and three losses. Historically, in their last two meetings, Shrewsbury has not secured a win, with one draw and one loss to Gillingham. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Shrewsbury and Gillingham expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.24
Shrewsbury and Gillingham attack and defence ratings
Shrewsbury
Gillingham
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Shrewsbury vs Gillingham markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shrewsbury | 44.5% | 2.25 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.8% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.0% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shrewsbury | 44.5% |
| Draw | 25.0% | |
| Gillingham | 30.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.8% |
| No | 35.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Shrewsbury win | 24.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.9% | |
| Loss | 55.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | |
| 1-2 | 7.4% |
Shrewsbury vs Gillingham stats
Shrewsbury and Gillingham recent form
| Shrewsbury |
DWWLWD |
| Gillingham |
LDLWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Shrewsbury and Gillingham season so far
Shrewsbury record
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
Gillingham record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Shrewsbury vs Gillingham head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Gillingham | Shrewsbury | League Two | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-29 | Shrewsbury | Gillingham | League Two | 3-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.