Newport County
vs
Chesterfield
Garuda Lions Prediction: Chesterfield
0 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Newport County vs Chesterfield overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Newport County vs Chesterfield
| Probability | Newport County | Draw | Chesterfield |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.6% | 28.7% | 39.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 31.6% | 28.7% | 39.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Newport County vs Chesterfield match preview
Newport County faces Chesterfield in a League Two clash where Newport holds a 42% probability of winning, while both teams share a 29% chance of a draw or Chesterfield victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Newport, with an expected goals tally of 1.41 for Newport and 1.13 for Chesterfield. Recent form shows Newport with three draws and two wins in their last six matches, while Chesterfield has two wins and four draws in their last six.
In terms of scoring, there is a 52% likelihood that both teams will find the net, and a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match. The head-to-head record from the last two encounters indicates an even split, with each team having one win. The confidence grade for this forecast is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Newport County and Chesterfield expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.61
Newport County and Chesterfield attack and defence ratings
Newport County
Chesterfield
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Newport County vs Chesterfield markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chesterfield | 39.7% | 2.52 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.2% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.3% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.3% | 1.66 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Newport County | 31.6% |
| Draw | 28.7% | |
| Chesterfield | 39.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.2% |
| No | 45.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Chesterfield win | 19.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 60.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 0-1 | 9.0% | |
| 1-2 | 8.7% |
Newport County vs Chesterfield stats
Newport County and Chesterfield recent form
| Newport County |
LDDWDW |
| Chesterfield |
WDLDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Newport County and Chesterfield season so far
Newport County record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- 62% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chesterfield record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
Newport County vs Chesterfield head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Newport County | Chesterfield | League Two | 2-1 |
| 2025-09-27 | Chesterfield | Newport County | League Two | 4-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.