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League Two · Full time ·Matchday 14

Newport County vs Chesterfield

4 – 1 Full time

13′Remeao Hutton
14′Cameron Norman
17′George McEachran
18′Thomas Davies
21′Paul Anthony Cook
23′Liam Mandeville
29′Harrison Biggins
45′Yahya Bamba
45′Paul Anthony Cook
58′Liam Mandeville
58′F. BrydenLee Bonis
59′Dilan MarkandayLouie Marsh
64′Yahya BambaKieron Thomas Evans
70′Josh KoromaDylan Duffy
71′George McEachranJoel Randall
76′Ciaran Brennan
78′Tom PearceLewis Gordon
79′Thomas Daviesjoe thomas
79′Michael Adu-PokuGerard Garner
87′Matthew SmithCameron Evans
87′Kion EteteJames Crole
89′Gerard Garner
90′Jack Simpson

Rodney Parade, NewportReferee: Z. Kennard-Kettle

Newport County 24%
Draw 26%
Chesterfield 50%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

21 Shots 12
5 Shots on target 3
28 Possession % 71
6 Corners 4
12 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 6
1 Saves 1
114 Accurate passes 416

Newport County vs Chesterfield overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Newport County vs Chesterfield

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityNewport CountyDrawChesterfield
Model31.5%28.7%39.7%
Market21.2%24.7%54.1%
Final23.8%25.7%50.5%
Edge+2.6%+1.0%-3.6%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Newport County ↓ / Chesterfield → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 9% 7% 1 8% 14% 9% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 75%
3+ goals 48%
No goals 9%

Newport County and Chesterfield expected goals

Newport County 1.22
Chesterfield 1.39

Total expected goals: 2.61

Newport County and Chesterfield attack and defence ratings

Newport County

Attack 0.88 -12%
Defence 0.88 -12%

Chesterfield

Attack 1.34 +34%
Defence 0.99 -1%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Newport County vs Chesterfield: result vs prediction

Newport County 4 – 1 Chesterfield

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 14 fixtures

League Two

Before and after this match

Newport County vs Chesterfield markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Chesterfield 50.5% 1.98 -3.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 51.7% 1.94 — —
Both teams to score Yes 54.1% 1.85 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 76.2% 1.31 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 60.3% 1.66 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Newport County23.8%
Draw25.7%
Chesterfield50.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.548.3%
Under 2.551.7%
Both teams to scoreYes54.1%
No45.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)49.5%
12 (either side)74.3%
X2 (draw or away)76.2%
Handicap -1Chesterfield win19.2%
Push (exactly one goal)20.5%
Loss60.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.7%
0-19.0%
1-28.7%

Newport County vs Chesterfield stats

Newport County and Chesterfield recent form

newest first
Newport County LDDWDW
Chesterfield WDLDWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Newport County and Chesterfield going into this match

league record before kick-off

Newport County record

  • They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
  • 54% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Chesterfield record

  • They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.

Newport County vs Chesterfield head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

3Newport County wins 1Draws 4Chesterfield wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-01-24Newport CountyChesterfieldLeague Two2-1
2025-09-27ChesterfieldNewport CountyLeague Two4-1
2025-03-08ChesterfieldNewport CountyLeague Two2-1
2024-10-18Newport CountyChesterfieldLeague Two0-3
2018-05-01ChesterfieldNewport CountyLeague Two1-0
2017-08-26Newport CountyChesterfieldLeague Two4-1
2014-04-05ChesterfieldNewport CountyLeague Two1-1
2013-12-01Newport CountyChesterfieldLeague Two3-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Newport County vs Chesterfield odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 21.2%, draw 24.7%, away 54.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 4.33 3.70 1.73
Bet365 4.50 3.75 1.70
BetVictor 4.75 3.80 1.70
Betano 4.35 3.80 1.72
Betfair 4.60 3.80 1.73
Dafabet 4.60 3.85 1.74
Marathonbet 4.33 3.70 1.71
Pinnacle 4.38 3.83 1.79
SBO 3.02 3.01 1.98
William Hill 4.40 3.60 1.70

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.39 ▲ +0.94
X 3.77 ▲ +0.28
2 1.73 ▼ -0.26

10 snapshots recorded, from .