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England FA Cup · Full time ·1/128-finals

Chesterfield vs Yeovil Town

4 – 3 Full time

38′Slavi Spasov
43′Jack Simpson
45′Josh Koroma
55′Jack Simpson
60′Slavi SpasovStephen Walker
60′Mason ObengCharlie Lennon
60′Zain WestbrookeSebastian Naylor
69′Liam MandevilleDilan Markanday
70′Louie MarshJoel Randall
75′Ryan JonesOwen Dean
76′Lee BonisF. Bryden
76′Josh KoromaDylan Duffy
78′James Daly
82′Hayden Muller
83′Kiano DyerGeorge McEachran
89′Joel Randall

Proact Stadium, Chesterfield

Chesterfield 58%
Draw 21%
Yeovil Town 21%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

20 Shots 6
10 Shots on target 4
47 Possession % 53
12 Corners 2
6 Fouls 5
0 Saves 6

Chesterfield vs Yeovil Town overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Chesterfield vs Yeovil Town

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityChesterfieldDrawYeovil Town
Model45.9%22.0%32.2%
Market62.6%20.5%16.9%
Final58.4%20.9%20.8%
Edge-4.2%+0.4%+3.8%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Chesterfield

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.81.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Chesterfield ↓ / Yeovil Town → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 8% 7% 2 4% 8% 7% 4% 3 6% 5% 4+ 5% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 91%
3+ goals 76%
No goals 3%

Chesterfield and Yeovil Town expected goals

Chesterfield 2.17
Yeovil Town 1.81

Total expected goals: 3.98

Chesterfield and Yeovil Town attack and defence ratings

Chesterfield

Attack 1.08 +8%
Defence 1.00 +0%

Yeovil Town

Attack 1.22 +22%
Defence 1.11 +11%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Chesterfield vs Yeovil Town: result vs prediction

Chesterfield 4 – 3 Yeovil Town

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

England FA Cup

Before and after this match

Chesterfield vs Yeovil Town markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Chesterfield 58.4% 1.71 -4.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 75.8% 1.32 — —
Both teams to score Yes 74.8% 1.34 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 79.2% 1.26 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 54.1% 1.85 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Chesterfield58.4%
Draw20.9%
Yeovil Town20.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.575.8%
Under 2.524.2%
Both teams to scoreYes74.8%
No25.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)79.2%
12 (either side)79.1%
X2 (draw or away)41.6%
Handicap -1Chesterfield win27.3%
Push (exactly one goal)18.6%
Loss54.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-18.1%
2-18.0%
2-27.2%

Chesterfield vs Yeovil Town stats

Chesterfield and Yeovil Town recent form

newest first
Chesterfield LWDLDW
Yeovil Town WDLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Chesterfield vs Yeovil Town head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

5Chesterfield wins 2Draws 2Yeovil Town wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2023-03-11ChesterfieldYeovil TownNational League1-1
2022-09-17Yeovil TownChesterfieldNational League2-2
2022-02-26ChesterfieldYeovil TownNational League1-0
2021-09-18Yeovil TownChesterfieldNational League0-2
2021-03-06ChesterfieldYeovil TownNational League3-0
2020-10-31Yeovil TownChesterfieldNational League0-1
2019-12-10ChesterfieldYeovil TownNational League1-2
2018-01-20Yeovil TownChesterfieldLeague Two1-2
2017-09-26ChesterfieldYeovil TownLeague Two2-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Chesterfield vs Yeovil Town odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 62.6%, draw 20.5%, away 16.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.48 4.55 5.72
Bet365 1.50 4.75 5.25
BetVictor 1.45 4.40 5.50
Betano 1.52 4.45 5.30
Betfair 1.47 4.60 5.50
Dafabet 1.53 4.80 5.60
Marathonbet 1.47 4.55 5.70
Pinnacle 1.52 4.57 5.56
SBO 1.43 3.91 4.76
William Hill 1.50 4.00 5.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.49 ▲ +0.02
X 4.55 ▲ +0.02
2 5.50 ▼ -0.26

3 snapshots recorded, from .