Chesterfield
vs
Yeovil Town
Garuda Lions Prediction: Chesterfield
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 1.50.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Chesterfield vs Yeovil Town overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Chesterfield vs Yeovil Town
| Probability | Chesterfield | Draw | Yeovil Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.3% | 21.9% | 24.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 53.3% | 21.9% | 24.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Chesterfield
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 1.50.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Chesterfield vs Yeovil Town match preview
Chesterfield enters the match against Yeovil Town with a 53% probability of winning, while Yeovil Town has a 25% chance. The model predicts a likely scoreline of 2-1 in favor of Chesterfield, with an expected goals tally of 2.22 for Chesterfield and 1.50 for Yeovil Town. Recent form shows Chesterfield with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while Yeovil Town has one win, two draws, and two losses.
The model indicates a strong likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 72%, and both teams scoring is projected at 70%. With Chesterfield's recent performance slightly better than Yeovil Town's, the match is expected to be competitive, but Chesterfield appears to have the upper hand.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Chesterfield and Yeovil Town expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.72
Chesterfield and Yeovil Town attack and defence ratings
Chesterfield
Yeovil Town
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Huddersfield vs Exeter City — team news & stats
- Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds
- Bristol Rovers v Cambridge United — match page
- Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale — team news & stats
- Oxford United vs Stevenage
- Bradford v Marine — match page
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town — team news & stats
- Port Vale vs Scunthorpe — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Chesterfield vs Yeovil Town markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chesterfield | 53.3% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.8% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.0% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.1% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.7% | 2.14 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chesterfield | 53.3% |
| Draw | 21.9% | |
| Yeovil Town | 24.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.0% |
| No | 30.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Chesterfield win | 33.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 46.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.0% |
| 1-1 | 8.9% | |
| 2-2 | 6.7% |
Chesterfield vs Yeovil Town stats
Chesterfield and Yeovil Town recent form
| Chesterfield |
WDLDWL |
| Yeovil Town |
WDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.