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England FA Cup · Full time ·1/128-finals

Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United

2 – 0 Full time

39′Alfie Kilgour
51′Liam bennett
57′Reiss-Alexander Russell-Denny
64′Zak·BradshawIsaac Heath
64′Liam bennettCathal Séan Heffernan Andrews
65′Raees Bangura-WilliamsShayne Lavery
71′Tommy Leigh
72′Fabrizio Cavegn
73′Reiss-Alexander Russell-DennyBobby Kamwa
73′Tommy LeighShaqai Forde
74′Ben Purrington
78′Louis AppereCallum stead
79′Clinton Mola
79′Patrick BauerCallum Perry
84′Fabrizio CavegnPhilip Sanyaolu

Memorial Stadium, Bristol

Bristol Rovers 32%
Draw 27%
Cambridge United 41%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

12 Shots 6
4 Shots on target 3
59 Possession % 41
3 Corners 5
14 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 1
3 Saves 2

Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBristol RoversDrawCambridge United
Model32.7%29.9%37.4%
Market31.7%26.1%42.2%
Final32.0%27.1%41.0%
Edge+0.2%+0.9%-1.2%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Cambridge United

  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Bristol Rovers ↓ / Cambridge Unit → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 10% 1 9% 14% 8% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 71%
3+ goals 44%
No goals 10%

Bristol Rovers and Cambridge United expected goals

Bristol Rovers 1.17
Cambridge United 1.27

Total expected goals: 2.44

Bristol Rovers and Cambridge United attack and defence ratings

Bristol Rovers

Attack 0.66 -34%
Defence 1.01 +1%

Cambridge United

Attack 0.85 -15%
Defence 0.97 -3%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United: result vs prediction

Bristol Rovers 2 – 0 Cambridge United

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

England FA Cup

Before and after this match

Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Cambridge United 41.0% 2.44 -1.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 55.8% 1.79 — —
Both teams to score Yes 51.0% 1.96 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.9% 1.37 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 62.6% 1.60 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Bristol Rovers32.0%
Draw27.1%
Cambridge United41.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544.2%
Under 2.555.8%
Both teams to scoreYes51.0%
No49.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)59.0%
12 (either side)72.9%
X2 (draw or away)68.0%
Handicap -1Cambridge United win17.1%
Push (exactly one goal)20.3%
Loss62.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.2%
0-010.0%
0-19.7%

Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United stats

Bristol Rovers and Cambridge United recent form

newest first
Bristol Rovers LDLLLL
Cambridge United LDLDWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Bristol Rovers wins 1Draws 3Cambridge United wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-14Cambridge UnitedBristol RoversLeague Two3-1
2025-12-02Bristol RoversCambridge UnitedEFL Trophy2-2
2025-08-23Bristol RoversCambridge UnitedLeague Two1-0
2025-08-12Bristol RoversCambridge UnitedLeague Cup0-2
2025-01-04Cambridge UnitedBristol RoversLeague One0-1
2024-08-31Bristol RoversCambridge UnitedLeague One2-0
2024-04-16Bristol RoversCambridge UnitedLeague One1-0
2023-08-19Cambridge UnitedBristol RoversLeague One2-0
2023-01-07Cambridge UnitedBristol RoversLeague One1-2
2022-10-08Bristol RoversCambridge UnitedLeague One2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 31.7%, draw 26.1%, away 42.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.93 3.60 2.22
Bet365 3.00 3.60 2.20
BetVictor 2.88 3.50 2.15
Betano 3.00 3.50 2.22
Betfair 2.90 3.50 2.20
Dafabet 3.00 3.75 2.27
Marathonbet 2.92 3.60 2.20
Pinnacle 2.98 3.72 2.27
SBO 2.66 3.23 2.15
William Hill 2.90 3.40 2.20

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.92 ▼ -0.18
X 3.55 ▼ -0.12
2 2.20 ▲ +0.10

4 snapshots recorded, from .