Bristol Rovers
vs
Cambridge United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cambridge United
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United
| Probability | Bristol Rovers | Draw | Cambridge United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.9% | 30.3% | 40.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 28.9% | 30.3% | 40.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Cambridge United
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United match preview
Bristol Rovers face Cambridge United in the FA Cup with a forecasted probability of 29% for a home win, 30% for a draw, and 41% for an away victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 11%. Expected goals suggest Bristol Rovers will score 1.06 while Cambridge United is projected to net 1.30.
Recent form shows Bristol Rovers struggling with five matches without a win, recording four losses and one draw, while Cambridge United has had a mixed run with two wins, three draws, and one loss in their last six games. The head-to-head record favors Cambridge United, who have won two of the last three encounters, with Bristol Rovers claiming just one victory.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bristol Rovers and Cambridge United expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.35
Bristol Rovers and Cambridge United attack and defence ratings
Bristol Rovers
Cambridge United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Huddersfield vs Exeter City — team news & stats
- Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds
- Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale — team news & stats
- Oxford United vs Stevenage
- Bradford v Marine — match page
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town — team news & stats
- Port Vale vs Scunthorpe — team news & stats
- Accrington ST vs Wycombe
Before and after this match
Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cambridge United | 40.7% | 2.45 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 71.1% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.3% | 1.69 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bristol Rovers | 28.9% |
| Draw | 30.3% | |
| Cambridge United | 40.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.7% |
| No | 51.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cambridge United win | 19.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 59.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 0-1 | 11.0% | |
| 0-0 | 10.8% |
Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United stats
Bristol Rovers and Cambridge United recent form
| Bristol Rovers |
DLLLLW |
| Cambridge United |
LDWWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Cambridge United | Bristol Rovers | League Two | 3-1 |
| 2025-08-23 | Bristol Rovers | Cambridge United | League Two | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-12 | Bristol Rovers | Cambridge United | League Cup | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.