Port Vale
vs
Scunthorpe
Garuda Lions Prediction: Scunthorpe
0 – 1 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.38 vs 0.74.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Port Vale vs Scunthorpe overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Port Vale vs Scunthorpe
| Probability | Port Vale | Draw | Scunthorpe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.0% | 30.3% | 50.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 19.0% | 30.3% | 50.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Scunthorpe
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.38 vs 0.74.
Port Vale vs Scunthorpe match preview
Port Vale faces Scunthorpe in the FA Cup with a forecasted probability of 19% for a Port Vale victory, 30% for a draw, and 51% for a Scunthorpe win. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 15%. Expected goals for Port Vale stand at 0.74, while Scunthorpe is projected to score 1.38.
In terms of recent form, Port Vale has recorded one win, two draws, and three losses in their last six matches, while Scunthorpe has achieved two wins, one draw, and three losses in the same period. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 36%, and the probability of both teams scoring is at 40%. The overall confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Port Vale and Scunthorpe expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.12
Port Vale and Scunthorpe attack and defence ratings
Port Vale
Scunthorpe
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Huddersfield vs Exeter City — team news & stats
- Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds
- Bristol Rovers v Cambridge United — match page
- Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale — team news & stats
- Oxford United vs Stevenage
- Bradford v Marine — match page
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town — team news & stats
- Accrington ST vs Wycombe
Before and after this match
Port Vale vs Scunthorpe markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Scunthorpe | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.4% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 81.0% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.3% | 2.03 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Port Vale | 19.0% |
| Draw | 30.3% | |
| Scunthorpe | 50.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.5% |
| No | 59.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 49.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 81.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Scunthorpe win | 25.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.3% | |
| Loss | 49.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 15.3% |
| 1-1 | 13.5% | |
| 0-0 | 13.2% |
Port Vale vs Scunthorpe stats
Port Vale and Scunthorpe recent form
| Port Vale |
LDWWLW |
| Scunthorpe |
WLWLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.