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England FA Cup · Full time ·1/128-finals

Port Vale vs Scunthorpe

4 – 2 Full time

8′Keyrol Alexis Figueroa Norales
58′Onel Hernández
59′Keyrol Alexis Figueroa NoralesMax Watters
61′Max Watters
70′L. BrennanDeclan Howe
70′Tyler DentonRegan Clayton
70′Oliver RoseJ. Gale
73′Onel HernándezOliver Lynch
73′Connor HallLewis Montsma
78′Regan Clayton
80′Daniel BattyJordan Richards
86′James Norwood
88′Patrick·JonesTyrell Sellars-Fleming
90′Declan Howe
90′Oliver Lynch
90′George Cardinal Joseph·HallCharlie Bussell
90′Jordan GabrielAaron McGowan

Vale Park, Stoke-On-Trent

Port Vale 51%
Draw 24%
Scunthorpe 25%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 8
7 Shots on target 3
65 Possession % 35
4 Corners 3
6 Fouls 12
7 Offsides 3
1 Saves 3

Port Vale vs Scunthorpe overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Port Vale vs Scunthorpe

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityPort ValeDrawScunthorpe
Model25.5%29.0%45.5%
Market59.6%22.6%17.8%
Final51.1%24.2%24.7%
Edge-8.5%+1.6%+6.9%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Port Vale ↓ / Scunthorpe → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 11% 9% 1 7% 14% 9% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 72%
3+ goals 45%
No goals 10%

Port Vale and Scunthorpe expected goals

Port Vale 1.02
Scunthorpe 1.44

Total expected goals: 2.46

Port Vale and Scunthorpe attack and defence ratings

Port Vale

Attack 0.71 -29%
Defence 0.83 -17%

Scunthorpe

Attack 1.17 +17%
Defence 0.80 -20%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Port Vale vs Scunthorpe: result vs prediction

Port Vale 4 – 2 Scunthorpe

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

England FA Cup

Before and after this match

Port Vale vs Scunthorpe markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Port Vale 51.1% 1.96 -8.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 55.4% 1.80 — —
Both teams to score Yes 50.0% 2.00 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.8% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 74.5% 1.34 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Port Vale51.1%
Draw24.2%
Scunthorpe24.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544.6%
Under 2.555.4%
Both teams to scoreYes50.0%
No50.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)75.3%
12 (either side)75.8%
X2 (draw or away)48.9%
Handicap -1Port Vale win9.9%
Push (exactly one goal)15.6%
Loss74.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.8%
0-111.1%
0-09.8%

Port Vale vs Scunthorpe stats

Port Vale and Scunthorpe recent form

newest first
Port Vale WLDWWL
Scunthorpe WLWLWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Port Vale vs Scunthorpe head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Port Vale wins 1Draws 5Scunthorpe wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2022-01-29Port ValeScunthorpeLeague Two1-0
2021-09-25ScunthorpePort ValeLeague Two0-1
2021-01-26ScunthorpePort ValeLeague Two2-0
2020-11-17Port ValeScunthorpeLeague Two0-1
2020-09-05ScunthorpePort ValeLeague Cup1-2
2020-02-29Port ValeScunthorpeLeague Two2-2
2019-11-23ScunthorpePort ValeLeague Two2-1
2017-01-28ScunthorpePort ValeLeague One3-2
2016-08-27Port ValeScunthorpeLeague One3-1
2016-04-30ScunthorpePort ValeLeague One1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Port Vale vs Scunthorpe odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 59.6%, draw 22.6%, away 17.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.57 4.15 5.21
Bet365 1.57 4.10 5.25
BetVictor 1.53 3.90 5.25
Betano 1.60 4.10 5.00
Betfair 1.57 4.20 5.00
Dafabet 1.59 4.30 5.60
Marathonbet 1.55 4.15 5.30
Pinnacle 1.55 4.35 5.56
SBO 1.50 3.58 4.55
William Hill 1.55 3.90 5.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.56 —
X 4.12 —
2 5.23 ▲ +0.23

3 snapshots recorded, from .