Milton Keynes Dons
vs
Swindon Town
Garuda Lions Prediction: Milton Keynes Dons
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town
| Probability | Milton Keynes Dons | Draw | Swindon Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.3% | 32.3% | 31.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 36.3% | 32.3% | 31.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Milton Keynes Dons
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town match preview
Milton Keynes Dons face Swindon Town in the FA Cup with a slight edge in our model's predictions, giving them a 36% chance of victory compared to Swindon Town's 31%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a probability of 12%. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Milton Keynes Dons recording a W-L-W-L-D-D streak, while Swindon Town has a D-W-D-L-L-D record.
In terms of expected goals, Milton Keynes Dons are forecasted to score 1.12, while Swindon Town is projected at 1.02. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 36%, and the probability of both teams scoring is estimated at 44%. Historically, Milton Keynes Dons have dominated their last two encounters, winning both matches against Swindon Town.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Milton Keynes Dons and Swindon Town expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.14
Milton Keynes Dons and Swindon Town attack and defence ratings
Milton Keynes Dons
Swindon Town
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
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- Bristol Rovers v Cambridge United — match page
- Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale — team news & stats
- Oxford United vs Stevenage
- Bradford v Marine — match page
- Port Vale vs Scunthorpe — team news & stats
- Accrington ST vs Wycombe
Before and after this match
Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Milton Keynes Dons | 36.3% | 2.75 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 63.9% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.6% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.7% | 1.57 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Milton Keynes Dons | 36.3% |
| Draw | 32.3% | |
| Swindon Town | 31.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 63.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.4% |
| No | 55.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Milton Keynes Dons win | 15.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 63.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.8% |
| 0-0 | 13.1% | |
| 1-0 | 11.8% |
Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town stats
Milton Keynes Dons and Swindon Town recent form
| Milton Keynes Dons |
WLWLDD |
| Swindon Town |
DWDLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Swindon Town | Milton Keynes Dons | League Two | 1-2 |
| 2025-12-26 | Milton Keynes Dons | Swindon Town | League Two | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.