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England FA Cup · Full time ·1/128-finals

Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town

2 – 1 Full time

6′Marvin Ekpiteta
13′Aaron Collins
45′Aaron Drinan
45′Samuel SilveraGethin Jones
45′Dan CrowleyBen Wiles
57′Anthony Munda
62′Sam NombeCallum Paterson
62′Joel McGregorKaelan Majekodunmi
63′Anthony MundaTom Nichols
73′Matthew Virtue-ThickOllie Palmer
73′Joe SnowdonJaylan Pearman
80′Aaron Collinsibrahim fullah
80′Elijah CampbellCohen Bramall
81′Tom Nichols
83′Jack Sanders
90′Alex Gilbey
90′James BallLouis Millard

Stadium MK, Milton Keynes

Milton Keynes Dons 60%
Draw 22%
Swindon Town 18%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

10 Shots 5
6 Shots on target 4
54 Possession % 46
3 Corners 4
6 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 1
3 Saves 4

Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMilton Keynes DonsDrawSwindon Town
Model49.4%27.0%23.6%
Market63.3%20.6%16.1%
Final59.8%22.2%18.0%
Edge-3.5%+1.6%+1.9%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Milton Keynes Dons

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 1.06.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Milton Keynes ↓ / Swindon Town → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 10% 13% 2 9% 10% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 76%
3+ goals 50%
No goals 8%

Milton Keynes Dons and Swindon Town expected goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1.63
Swindon Town 1.06

Total expected goals: 2.69

Milton Keynes Dons and Swindon Town attack and defence ratings

Milton Keynes Dons

Attack 1.16 +16%
Defence 0.94 -6%

Swindon Town

Attack 0.76 -24%
Defence 0.78 -22%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town: result vs prediction

Milton Keynes Dons 2 – 1 Swindon Town

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

England FA Cup

Before and after this match

Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Milton Keynes Dons 59.8% 1.67 -3.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 50.3% 1.99 — —
Both teams to score Yes 53.7% 1.86 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 82.0% 1.22 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 50.6% 1.98 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Milton Keynes Dons59.8%
Draw22.2%
Swindon Town18.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550.3%
Under 2.549.7%
Both teams to scoreYes53.7%
No46.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)82.0%
12 (either side)77.8%
X2 (draw or away)40.2%
Handicap -1Milton Keynes Dons win26.8%
Push (exactly one goal)22.6%
Loss50.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.9%
1-09.9%
2-19.6%

Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town stats

Milton Keynes Dons and Swindon Town recent form

newest first
Milton Keynes Dons WWWLWL
Swindon Town WDWDLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

7Milton Keynes Dons wins 1Draws 2Swindon Town wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-14Swindon TownMilton Keynes DonsLeague Two1-2
2025-12-26Milton Keynes DonsSwindon TownLeague Two1-0
2025-11-11Milton Keynes DonsSwindon TownEFL Trophy0-4
2025-05-03Swindon TownMilton Keynes DonsLeague Two0-0
2024-11-09Milton Keynes DonsSwindon TownLeague Two3-1
2024-02-17Swindon TownMilton Keynes DonsLeague Two1-2
2023-10-28Milton Keynes DonsSwindon TownLeague Two3-2
2021-04-24Milton Keynes DonsSwindon TownLeague One5-0
2020-12-29Swindon TownMilton Keynes DonsLeague One1-4
2019-02-09Milton Keynes DonsSwindon TownLeague Two2-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 63.3%, draw 20.6%, away 16.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.47 4.55 5.87
Bet365 1.50 4.50 5.75
BetVictor 1.44 4.33 5.75
Betano 1.50 4.50 5.60
Betfair 1.47 4.50 5.50
Dafabet 1.50 4.80 6.00
Marathonbet 1.46 4.55 5.85
Pinnacle 1.45 4.89 6.09
SBO 1.41 3.91 4.94
William Hill 1.44 4.20 5.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.46 ▼ -0.02
X 4.50 ▼ -0.03
2 5.75 —

3 snapshots recorded, from .