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League One · Full time ·Matchday 15

Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion

6 – 2 Full time

Stadium MK, Milton Keynes

Milton Keynes Dons 55%
Draw 24%
Burton Albion 21%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMilton Keynes DonsDrawBurton Albion
Model51.5%23.5%25.1%
Market56.4%23.6%20.1%
Final55.1%23.5%21.3%
Edge-1.2%-0.0%+1.3%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Milton Keynes Dons

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 1.37.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Milton Keynes ↓ / Burton Albion → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 10% 6% 2 7% 9% 6% 3 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 86%
3+ goals 66%
No goals 4%

Milton Keynes Dons and Burton Albion expected goals

Milton Keynes Dons 2.01
Burton Albion 1.37

Total expected goals: 3.38

Milton Keynes Dons and Burton Albion attack and defence ratings

Milton Keynes Dons

Attack 1.39 +39%
Defence 1.07 +7%

Burton Albion

Attack 1.09 +9%
Defence 0.97 -3%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion: result vs prediction

Milton Keynes Dons 6 – 2 Burton Albion

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

League One

Before and after this match

Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Milton Keynes Dons 55.1% 1.81 -1.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 65.6% 1.52 — —
Both teams to score Yes 65.5% 1.53 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 78.7% 1.27 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 48.5% 2.06 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Milton Keynes Dons55.1%
Draw23.5%
Burton Albion21.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.565.6%
Under 2.534.4%
Both teams to scoreYes65.5%
No34.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)78.7%
12 (either side)76.5%
X2 (draw or away)44.9%
Handicap -1Milton Keynes Dons win30.7%
Push (exactly one goal)20.8%
Loss48.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.3%
2-19.4%
2-06.9%

Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion stats

Milton Keynes Dons and Burton Albion recent form

newest first
Milton Keynes Dons WWWWLW
Burton Albion WLWDDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Milton Keynes Dons and Burton Albion going into this match

league record before kick-off

Milton Keynes Dons record

  • They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.

Burton Albion record

  • They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.

Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

4Milton Keynes Dons wins 3Draws 2Burton Albion wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2023-05-07Burton AlbionMilton Keynes DonsLeague One0-0
2022-12-03Milton Keynes DonsBurton AlbionLeague One1-1
2022-01-25Burton AlbionMilton Keynes DonsLeague One0-1
2021-11-20Milton Keynes DonsBurton AlbionLeague One1-0
2021-08-31Burton AlbionMilton Keynes DonsEFL Trophy1-2
2021-03-20Burton AlbionMilton Keynes DonsLeague One1-2
2020-12-12Milton Keynes DonsBurton AlbionLeague One1-1
2020-01-14Burton AlbionMilton Keynes DonsLeague One1-0
2019-10-05Milton Keynes DonsBurton AlbionLeague One0-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 56.4%, draw 23.6%, away 20.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.66 3.98 4.65
Bet365 1.65 3.80 4.75
BetVictor 1.65 4.00 4.75
Betano 1.70 3.85 4.50
Betfair 1.67 4.00 4.60
Dafabet 1.70 4.00 4.70
Marathonbet 1.64 3.98 4.70
Pinnacle 1.69 4.14 4.85
SBO 1.60 3.61 4.14
William Hill 1.67 3.80 4.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.67 ▲ +0.08
X 3.98 ▼ -0.05
2 4.68 ▼ -0.32

27 snapshots recorded, from .