Mansfield Town
vs
Milton Keynes Dons
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mansfield Town
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.41.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Mansfield Town vs Milton Keynes Dons overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mansfield Town vs Milton Keynes Dons
| Probability | Mansfield Town | Draw | Milton Keynes Dons |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.1% | 24.6% | 28.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 47.1% | 24.6% | 28.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Mansfield Town
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.41.
Mansfield Town vs Milton Keynes Dons match preview
Mansfield Town faces Milton Keynes Dons in an upcoming League One clash, with our model assigning a 47% probability of a home victory for Mansfield, while Milton Keynes Dons has a 28% chance of winning. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Mansfield, occurring with a 9% probability. Both teams are expected to contribute to an engaging match, with a 63% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance that both teams will score.
In terms of expected goals, Mansfield Town is forecasted to achieve 1.86, while Milton Keynes Dons is projected to score 1.41. Recent form shows Mansfield Town with two wins, a draw, and a loss in their last six matches, while Milton Keynes Dons has recorded four wins and two losses in the same period. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mansfield Town and Milton Keynes Dons expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.27
Mansfield Town and Milton Keynes Dons attack and defence ratings
Mansfield Town
Milton Keynes Dons
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mansfield Town vs Milton Keynes Dons markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mansfield Town | 47.1% | 2.12 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.5% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.8% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mansfield Town | 47.1% |
| Draw | 24.6% | |
| Milton Keynes Dons | 28.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.8% |
| No | 35.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mansfield Town win | 26.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.4% | |
| Loss | 52.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 1-2 | 7.0% |
Mansfield Town vs Milton Keynes Dons stats
Mansfield Town and Milton Keynes Dons recent form
| Mansfield Town |
WDLWWD |
| Milton Keynes Dons |
WWWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mansfield Town and Milton Keynes Dons season so far
Mansfield Town record
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Milton Keynes Dons record
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.